# Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30

> Closed. Last odds frozen 8 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iranian-regime-fall-june-30
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: general · Topic: iran
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $765K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 3¢ | −1pp | $765K | polymarket | /markets/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30-polymarket-0x9352c559e9648ab4cab236087b64ca85c5b7123a4c7d9d7d4efde4a39c18056f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 6 |
| 2026-06-04 | 2 |
| 2026-06-12 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | 0 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability estimates the chance that Iran's current government structure fundamentally collapses by June 30, 2026. The 7% assessment reflects markets pricing this as an unlikely but non-negligible scenario within 58 days. The probability would rise with evidence of mass civil unrest, military defection, or international intervention; it would fall if the regime consolidates control or external pressure eases. The key catalyst is the trajectory of domestic political stability over the next two months—any major escalation in protests, security force fractures, or external military action would immediately shift expectations. Markets show declining confidence as the timeframe extends (3% by May 31 versus 19% by end of 2027), suggesting most participants view regime collapse as possible but more likely a multi-year process than an imminent event.

### Key factors

- Current domestic unrest levels and protest organization capacity compared to historical episodes
- Military and security force cohesion—any reported defections, splits between IRGC factions, or loyalty shifts
- Regional military escalation involving Iran, which could destabilize internal control structures
- Evidence of succession disputes or loss of unified command at the highest governmental levels
- International military or economic intervention that demonstrably weakens regime enforcement capacity

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iranian-regime-fall-june-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=iranian-regime-fall-june-30
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.