# Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes

> Closed. Last odds frozen 8 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: general · Topic: iran
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | 97¢ | +1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strike-polymarket-0xefc69f5f48827e331957acbcc2339eb3b15e27e32453b8e6f29b5de67474c986 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | 95 |
| 2026-06-04 | 98 |
| 2026-06-12 | 99 |
| 2026-06-18 | 100 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects traders' assessment that the Iranian regime would survive a scenario involving U.S. military strikes—currently priced at 31%, meaning markets give it roughly a one-in-three chance of enduring such an event. The pricing sits between 28% and 33% across venues, suggesting moderate confidence in the regime's resilience despite hypothetical military pressure. Key drivers include assessments of Iranian military capabilities, regime institutional depth, and international support networks versus U.S. military superiority and logistical reach. The most immediate uncertainty centers on the timeframe through May 31, where related contracts show sharper price divergence. Longer-dated contracts (through 2027) trade higher, indicating traders view survival probability as improving with extended timelines. The 5-percentage-point gap between venues reflects genuine disagreement on regime durability under kinetic pressure rather than data arrival.

### Key factors

- Contract pricing divergence by timeframe: May 31 expiry at 5¢ (95% fall probability) versus 2027 expiry at 22¢ (78% fall probability) indicates fundamental disagreement on regime collapse speed
- Trading volume concentration: Highest liquidity ($678K in 24h volume) on the shortest-dated May 31 contract suggests near-term uncertainty dominates market pricing
- Cross-venue gap of 5 percentage points with Kalshi consistently higher indicates systematic differences in how venues' trader bases model regime institutional resilience
- Related military scenario pricing: U.S. invasion probability at 34¢ suggests traders view invasion and regime survival as partially independent outcomes
- Temporal assumption testing: The extreme volatility between 1-month and 12-month survival probabilities reveals heavy dependence on assumption about conflict duration and intensity

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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