# Iraq vs. Norway

> Norway leads at 78%, runner-up 16% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iraq-vs-norway
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:42.261Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-16

## Headline

- Leader: Norway at 78%
- Runner-up: Draw (Iraq vs. Norway) at 16%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $325

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | 78¢ | ±0 | $46 | polymarket | /markets/iraq-vs-norway-norway-polymarket-0xcee0d9074a1f8766b4f66d806608a4097d027c94f85de367410fbbb166a29424 |
| Draw (Iraq vs. Norway) | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/iraq-vs-norway-draw-iraq-vs-norway-polymarket-0x947996d016c91c138f34eb5ebf0a67a27af1254fb93e603e48889c2f178ddd0a |
| Iraq | 10¢ | +2pp | $279 | polymarket | /markets/iraq-vs-norway-iraq-polymarket-0xd986b03674d1e1bf54b9cf25448c667452975dc068ac12e36a0b23cf96cd1795 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Norway | Draw (Iraq vs. Norway) | Iraq |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 76 | 16 | 10 |
| 2026-05-02 | 76 | 16 | 8 |
| 2026-05-08 | 77 | 15 | 10 |
| 2026-05-09 | 77 | 16 | — |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Iraq will defeat Norway in a competition. The 76% probability on the leading contract suggests strong confidence in an Iraq victory, though the relatively low absolute prices across contracts ($0.10 for the top market) and modest trading volumes indicate limited market engagement. The outcome likely depends on the specific nature of the competition—whether it's sports, economics, or another domain. Key variables include the comparative strength of each nation in the relevant category, any recent performance trends, and whether external factors like injuries, political developments, or regulatory changes might affect the result. The certainty reflected in the 76% level could shift substantially if new information emerges about either country's preparation, capability, or circumstances relevant to the competition.

### Key factors

- The Iraq contract trades at 10¢ with $11 in 24-hour volume, the highest liquidity among Iraq-Norway markets, suggesting this is the primary price discovery mechanism
- Norway appears in multiple concurrent contracts (vs. Senegal at 48¢, vs. France at 32¢) with varying probability levels, indicating market uncertainty about Norway's performance across different matchups
- The runner-up outcome at 17% suggests a meaningful tail scenario, with 7% unaccounted for in the three bound contracts, indicating residual market uncertainty
- Polymarket data shows very low volumes ($0-$5) on several related contracts, limiting confidence in price stability and suggesting thin liquidity outside the Iraq-Norway pair
- The specific domain of competition (sports, economic, or other metric) directly determines which country's comparative advantages are relevant to the resolution

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iraq-vs-norway
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=iraq-vs-norway

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.