# ISM Manufacturing PMI in Apr 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 15% across 17 contracts — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ismpmi
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:35:55.682Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 15% (liquidity-weighted across 17 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $35K

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 60 | 6¢ | −2pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-60-transit-calls-through-t-kalshi-kxhormuzweekly-26may03-t60 |
| Above 50 | 16¢ | −13pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-50-transit-calls-through-t-kalshi-kxhormuzweekly-26may03-t50 |
| Exactly 3.8% | 27¢ | −3pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/cpi-year-over-year-in-apr-2026-exactly-38-kalshi-kxeconstatcpiyoy-26apr-t3.8 |
| Above 40 | 64¢ | −6pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-40-transit-calls-through-t-kalshi-kxhormuzweekly-26may03-t40 |
| Above 3.6% | 64¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-36-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.6 |
| Above 0.5% | 51¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-rise-more-than-05-in-april-2026-above-05-kalshi-kxcpi-26apr-t0.5 |
| Above 54.0 | 3¢ | −16pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-ism-services-pmi-for-april-2026-be-above-5-kalshi-kxusismserv-26may05-t54.0 |
| Above 53.5 | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-ism-services-pmi-for-april-2026-be-above-5-kalshi-kxusismserv-26may05-t53.5 |
| Above 50.5 | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-ism-services-pmi-for-april-2026-be-above-5-kalshi-kxusismserv-26may05-t50.5 |
| Above 52.5 | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-ism-services-pmi-for-april-2026-be-above-5-kalshi-kxusismserv-26may05-t52.5 |
| Above 52.0 | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-ism-services-pmi-for-april-2026-be-above-5-kalshi-kxusismserv-26may05-t52.0 |
| Above 55.0 | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-ism-services-pmi-for-april-2026-be-above-5-kalshi-kxusismserv-26may05-t55.0 |
| Above 54.5 | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-ism-services-pmi-for-april-2026-be-above-5-kalshi-kxusismserv-26may05-t54.5 |
| Above 53.0 | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-ism-services-pmi-for-april-2026-be-above-5-kalshi-kxusismserv-26may05-t53.0 |
| Above 51.5 | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-ism-services-pmi-for-april-2026-be-above-5-kalshi-kxusismserv-26may05-t51.5 |
| Above 51.0 | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-ism-services-pmi-for-april-2026-be-above-5-kalshi-kxusismserv-26may05-t51.0 |
| Above 55.5 | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-ism-services-pmi-for-april-2026-be-above-5-kalshi-kxusismserv-26may05-t55.5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 25 |
| 2026-04-19 | 29 |
| 2026-04-26 | 28 |
| 2026-05-03 | 9 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Above 50.5 −85pp 89→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Above 51.0 −74pp 86→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Above 51.5 −71pp 83→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Above 52.0 −70pp 80→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Above 52.5 −53pp 64→11¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ismpmi
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ismpmi

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.