# Israel military action against Damascus by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/israel-military-action-against-damascus
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.314Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 31¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/israel-military-action-against-damascus-by-june-30-polymarket-0xeb4beaefa070c6ccfef90eb088852246c9e965b2672a83bc6f4c36ae347817f4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 44 |
| 2026-04-25 | 36 |
| 2026-05-02 | 24 |
| 2026-05-08 | 32 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · June 30 +9pp 18→27¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · June 30 −6pp 24→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · June 30 +6pp 26→32¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates an 18% probability that Israel will conduct military operations against Damascus by a specific deadline. The probability reflects current Middle East tensions and Israel's stated security concerns regarding Syrian government capabilities and Iranian presence. Key factors influencing the estimate include the stability of Syria's government, regional diplomatic developments, and broader geopolitical tensions. The market price suggests traders view such action as unlikely but plausible within the timeframe. Resolution depends on whether verifiable military operations occur before the deadline, with factors like ceasefire agreements, diplomatic negotiations, or changes in Syrian government control potentially lowering probability, while escalations in regional conflicts or direct threats to Israeli security could raise it.

### Key factors

- Current Syrian government stability and control over Damascus, particularly regarding weapons stockpiles or Iranian military infrastructure
- Status of Israel-Syria diplomatic channels and international pressure regarding military action in Syrian territory
- Broader regional security incidents and escalation patterns that would alter incentive structures for military intervention
- Presence and activity level of Iranian military assets in Syria that Israeli security doctrine identifies as direct threats
- Timeline-specific factors: the specific resolution date creates a bounded window where military action must occur to settle the contract

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/israel-military-action-against-damascus
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=israel-military-action-against-damascus

## License

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