# Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 51% across 1 contract — refreshed 27 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/israel-military-action-against-fordow-nuclear-facility
Updated: 2026-06-29T02:20:50.805Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2030-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 51% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $90

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2030 | 51¢ | +2pp | $90 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-start-the-process-of-building-a-nuclea-kalshi-kxdatacenter-30 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | 51 |
| 2026-06-15 | 50 |
| 2026-06-22 | 48 |
| 2026-06-28 | 50 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates a 23% chance that Israel will conduct military action against Iran's Fordow nuclear facility by a specified deadline. The probability reflects ongoing regional tensions and Iran's nuclear program developments, balanced against diplomatic efforts and the significant military and geopolitical risks such action would entail. Factors pushing the probability higher include escalations in Israeli-Iranian proxy conflicts or breakthroughs in Iranian nuclear capabilities; factors pushing it lower include diplomatic negotiations or de-escalation agreements. The resolution hinges on observable Israeli military operations, international statements, and Iran's nuclear advancement trajectory during the contract period.

### Key factors

- Status of Iranian nuclear enrichment levels at Fordow as monitored by IAEA inspections and public reporting
- Frequency and intensity of Israeli military operations against Iranian positions in Syria, Lebanon, or Iraq during the contract period
- Statements from Israeli government officials regarding red lines for military intervention in Iran's nuclear program
- Activity in diplomatic channels between Iran, Israel, US, and European parties regarding nuclear negotiations
- Any Israeli or allied air defense system deployments or military posturing changes near Iranian airspace

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/israel-military-action-against-fordow-nuclear-facility
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=israel-military-action-against-fordow-nuclear-facility

## License

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