# Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...

> July 31 leads at 19%, runner-up 10% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:10.202Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-31

## Headline

- Leader: July 31 at 19%
- Runner-up: June 30 at 10%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | 19¢ | −4pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by-july-31-polymarket-0x5813dc7ee3feea004711c97bdf27c407c3e943d876432ef50b49b8399eae9f37 |
| June 30 | 10¢ | +2pp | $5K | polymarket | /markets/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by-june-30-polymarket-0x57165bc68af588cf16e499eecd6c040e458c939e0fb0dd4b193744a9d21aa5f2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | July 31 | June 30 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | — | 10 |
| 2026-05-15 | — | 10 |
| 2026-05-21 | — | 10 |
| 2026-05-22 | 39 | 9 |
| 2026-05-27 | 22 | 12 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-25 · July 31 −12pp 38→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-23 · July 31 −9pp 39→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · July 31 +8pp 30→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · July 31 −4pp 26→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-25 · June 30 −3pp 13→10¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market is pricing a 9% probability that Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026—meaning traders assign roughly a 91% chance the withdrawal extends past that date. The probability reflects expectations around ongoing military operations, ceasefire negotiations, and diplomatic timelines. Factors driving the current level include the duration of the conflict, stated withdrawal conditions from Israeli leadership, and negotiation progress with Lebanese and international parties. Movement in this probability would likely follow concrete developments such as formal ceasefire announcements, verified troop reductions, or statements from Israeli military leadership on withdrawal timelines. The May 31 contract trading at 3% suggests markets view near-term withdrawal as especially unlikely, with the June 30 outcome representing the more plausible early-exit scenario.

### Key factors

- Israeli military and government statements on withdrawal conditions and timelines
- Status of ceasefire or de-escalation negotiations involving Israel, Lebanon, and international mediators
- Reported troop levels and military activity intensity on the ground in Lebanon
- Public commitments or agreements regarding withdrawal deadlines from Israeli defense officials
- Historical pattern of Israeli military operations in Lebanon and typical duration before drawdown

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=israel-withdraws-from-lebanon

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.