# Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...

> June 30 leads at 25%, runner-up 18% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 16 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:08.766Z
Category: geopolitics
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: June 30 at 25%
- Runner-up: June 15 at 18%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $112K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 25¢ | −2pp | $15K | polymarket | /markets/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-polymarket-0x86f43746cbd692719483aaeedc657eef89d9ffb91d6ffceacb1edf533e049516 |
| June 15 | 18¢ | ±0 | $17K | polymarket | /markets/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-15-polymarket-0x053d22e12bfe8dd73b12fc1cf89858ecc0de76aede10fea3eca5c7877d8db40c |
| May 31 | 5¢ | −4pp | $81K | polymarket | /markets/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-polymarket-0xc792f8824ef9bb549a4f5d89eec898caefdd3df5a507783f80202d289e9130ea |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | June 30 | June 15 | May 31 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | — | — | 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | — | — | 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | — | — | 4 |
| 2026-05-25 | 37 | 27 | 11 |
| 2026-05-26 | 31 | 22 | 9 |
| 2026-05-27 | 24 | 17 | 5 |
| 2026-05-28 | 22 | 17 | — |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-23 · May 31 +7pp 3→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · June 30 −7pp 31→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · June 30 −6pp 37→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · June 15 −5pp 27→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · June 15 −5pp 22→17¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This prediction estimates a 17% chance that Israel and Hezbollah will finalize a permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026—roughly one week from the contract date. The current low probability reflects the absence of active, formalized negotiations or announced framework agreements as of mid-May 2026. Resolution depends primarily on whether diplomatic channels produce a signed, durable settlement within the narrow timeframe. An extension of the deadline or ongoing ceasefire without formal agreement would likely lower the probability further, while public announcements of negotiation progress or peace framework details could raise it. The May 31 deadline creates binary uncertainty: either a permanent deal materializes in the coming days, or it does not.

### Key factors

- Absence of publicly announced peace negotiations or signed framework agreement as of late May 2026
- Historical pattern of Israel-Hezbollah tensions typically resolving through ceasefires rather than permanent formal peace treaties
- The extremely tight seven-day window leaves minimal time for complex diplomatic processes including legislative approval in both parties
- Monitoring for any official statements from Israeli government, Lebanese authorities, or international mediators about imminent deal finalization
- Definition specificity: whether 'permanent peace deal' requires formal treaty, mutual recognition, or could include durable ceasefire arrangements

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.