# Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...

> June 30 leads at 16%, runner-up 3% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.708Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: June 30 at 16%
- Runner-up: May 31 at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $364K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 16¢ | −1pp | $78K | polymarket | /markets/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-polymarket-0x5efa976ebe94080bbda7e45605333ff8f30156cc91604d66c41eb52fd3e25f3e |
| May 31 | 3¢ | −3pp | $287K | polymarket | /markets/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-polymarket-0x4d1ee0c046938319f654f99c6aca2380c1f6d88a65887dd360fda3d0509eddb4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | June 30 | May 31 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | — | 5 |
| 2026-05-12 | 16 | — |
| 2026-05-14 | 18 | — |
| 2026-05-16 | 14 | 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | 12 | 2 |
| 2026-05-28 | 18 | 3 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-24 · June 30 +7pp 11→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-21 · June 30 −6pp 18→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · May 31 +4pp 6→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-23 · May 31 +3pp 3→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · May 31 −3pp 9→6¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that Israel and Iran will reach a permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026—currently estimated at 17%, roughly 1 in 6 odds. The low probability reflects the substantial barriers to negotiation: active military tensions, proxy conflicts, and the absence of direct diplomatic channels. The gap between the May 31 contract (4%) and June 30 contract (17%) suggests markets expect minimal progress in the next three weeks, with somewhat higher but still unlikely potential over the following month. Resolution will depend on whether serious multilateral negotiations materialize, any de-escalation of regional proxy activity, or third-party mediation breakthroughs. The upcoming months will likely show whether geopolitical momentum shifts toward dialogue or further away from it.

### Key factors

- No active direct Israeli-Iranian peace negotiations are currently documented as ongoing as of May 2026
- The price differential between May 31 (4%) and June 30 (17%) indicates markets assign minimal probability to near-term breakthroughs
- Trading volume is concentrated in the June 30 contract ($8,539 in 24h volume vs $14,892 on May 31), suggesting this is where forecasters expect any resolution signal to emerge
- Historical Israeli-Iranian relations show no precedent for bilateral permanent peace agreements, making any deal structurally novel and contingent on major third-party involvement
- Regional proxy conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon would need to show documented de-escalation to support higher peace-deal probability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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