# Will The Democrats win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 55% across 20 contracts — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/israelanyseat
Updated: 2026-09-07T11:21:02.468Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-10-27

## Headline

- Probability: 55% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $525

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Economic Party | 6¢ | −1pp | $405 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-economic-party-win-at-least-1-seat-in-the-kalshi-kxisraelanyseat-26oct27-nep |
| Zionist Home–The Reservists | 17¢ | −16pp | $120 | kalshi | /markets/will-zionist-homethe-reservists-win-at-least-1-sea-kalshi-kxisraelanyseat-26oct27-zhome |
| People of Israel | 54¢ | −15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-people-of-israel-win-at-least-1-seat-in-the-2-kalshi-kxisraelanyseat-26oct27-people |
| Blue and White | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-blue-and-white-win-at-least-1-seat-in-the-202-kalshi-kxisraelanyseat-26oct27-bw |
| The Democrats | 91¢ | −34pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democrats-win-at-least-1-seat-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxisraelanyseat-26oct27-dem |
| Israel First | 6¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-israel-first-win-at-least-1-seat-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxisraelanyseat-26oct27-ifir |
| Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad) | 87¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-joint-list-hadashtaalbalad-win-at-least-1-sea-kalshi-kxisraelanyseat-26oct27-joint |
| Likud | 94¢ | +27pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-likud-win-at-least-1-seat-in-the-2026-israeli-kalshi-kxisraelanyseat-26oct27-lik |
| Noam for Israel | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-noam-for-israel-win-at-least-1-seat-in-the-20-kalshi-kxisraelanyseat-26oct27-noam |
| Otzma Yehudit | 91¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-otzma-yehudit-win-at-least-1-seat-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxisraelanyseat-26oct27-oyeh |
| A Place for All of Us | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-place-for-all-of-us-win-at-least-1-seat-in-kalshi-kxisraelanyseat-26oct27-place |
| Ra'am | 87¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-raam-win-at-least-1-seat-in-the-2026-israeli-kalshi-kxisraelanyseat-26oct27-raam |
| RZP-Zehut | 87¢ | −38pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rzp-zehut-win-at-least-1-seat-in-the-2026-isr-kalshi-kxisraelanyseat-26oct27-rzeh |
| Religious Zionist Party | 3¢ | −42pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-religious-zionist-party-win-at-least-1-seat-i-kalshi-kxisraelanyseat-26oct27-rzp |
| Shas | 92¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shas-win-at-least-1-seat-in-the-2026-israeli-kalshi-kxisraelanyseat-26oct27-shas |
| Together | 93¢ | +25pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-together-win-at-least-1-seat-in-the-2026-isra-kalshi-kxisraelanyseat-26oct27-tog |
| United Torah Judaism | 87¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-torah-judaism-win-at-least-1-seat-in-t-kalshi-kxisraelanyseat-26oct27-utj |
| Yashar | 91¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yashar-win-at-least-1-seat-in-the-2026-israel-kalshi-kxisraelanyseat-26oct27-yashar |
| Yisrael Beiteinu | 92¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yisrael-beiteinu-win-at-least-1-seat-in-the-2-kalshi-kxisraelanyseat-26oct27-ybei |
| Zehut | 6¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-zehut-win-at-least-1-seat-in-the-2026-israeli-kalshi-kxisraelanyseat-26oct27-zeh |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | 19 |
| 2026-08-31 | 47 |
| 2026-09-06 | 18 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-04 · RZP-Zehut +55pp 31→86¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-31 · The Democrats +54pp 27→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-31 · United Torah Judaism +51pp 26→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-31 · Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad) +50pp 27→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-31 · Ra'am +50pp 27→77¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This predicts whether The Democrats, a political party in Israel, will win at least one seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. The 8% probability reflects the party's historical difficulty in achieving Knesset representation. The main factors driving this low probability include Israel's high electoral threshold (currently 3.25% of votes nationally) that many smaller parties struggle to clear, and The Democrats' limited polling visibility and organizational capacity relative to other parties competing for centrist or left-leaning votes. The election itself, scheduled for late 2026, will ultimately determine whether the party mobilizes sufficient support. Key uncertainties include whether The Democrats can consolidate a distinct voter base before elections, how electoral coalitions form among smaller parties, and whether demographic or political shifts create space for new entrants in the crowded center-left political landscape.

### Key factors

- Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold represents a significant structural barrier that has prevented many smaller parties from achieving Knesset representation
- The Democrats' current polling presence and organizational infrastructure compared to established centrist parties like Yesh Atid and HaMeretz
- Historical patterns showing how many small parties in Israeli elections either fail to cross the threshold or merge with larger political blocs before voting
- Timing and composition of pre-election coalition negotiations, which frequently reshape the competitive landscape among smaller parties
- Election date and campaign calendar allowing The Democrats time to build visibility and mobilize supporters between now and late 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/israelanyseat
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=israelanyseat
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

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