# Will Likud be a part of the next government in Israel

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 15 contracts — refreshed 42 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/israelgovt
Updated: 2026-08-10T05:20:48.717Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noam | 24¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-noam-be-a-part-of-the-next-government-in-isra-kalshi-kxisraelgovt-28jan01-noam |
| Likud | 40¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-likud-be-a-part-of-the-next-government-in-isr-kalshi-kxisraelgovt-28jan01-lik |
| Yashar | 68¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yashar-be-a-part-of-the-next-government-in-is-kalshi-kxisraelgovt-28jan01-yas |
| Together | 56¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-together-be-a-part-of-the-next-government-in-kalshi-kxisraelgovt-28jan01-tog |
| The Democrats | 45¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democrats-be-a-part-of-the-next-governmen-kalshi-kxisraelgovt-28jan01-dem |
| Yisrael Beiteinu | 54¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yisrael-beiteinu-be-a-part-of-the-next-govern-kalshi-kxisraelgovt-28jan01-yis |
| Shas | 37¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shas-be-a-part-of-the-next-government-in-isra-kalshi-kxisraelgovt-28jan01-sha |
| United Torah Judaism | 35¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-torah-judaism-be-a-part-of-the-next-go-kalshi-kxisraelgovt-28jan01-utj |
| Otzma Yehudit | 31¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-otzma-yehudit-be-a-part-of-the-next-governmen-kalshi-kxisraelgovt-28jan01-oyeh |
| Religious Zionist Party | 25¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-religious-zionist-party-be-a-part-of-the-next-kalshi-kxisraelgovt-28jan01-rzp |
| Ra’am | 25¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-raam-be-a-part-of-the-next-government-in-isra-kalshi-kxisraelgovt-28jan01-raam |
| Foundations of Israel | 24¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-foundations-of-israel-be-a-part-of-the-next-g-kalshi-kxisraelgovt-28jan01-roi |
| Blue and White | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-blue-and-white-be-a-part-of-the-next-governme-kalshi-kxisraelgovt-28jan01-bw |
| Hadash–Ta’al | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hadashtaal-be-a-part-of-the-next-government-i-kalshi-kxisraelgovt-28jan01-htaa |
| Balad | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-balad-be-a-part-of-the-next-government-in-isr-kalshi-kxisraelgovt-28jan01-bal |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | 70 |
| 2026-07-27 | 39 |
| 2026-08-03 | 28 |
| 2026-08-09 | 33 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-03 · Likud +31pp 10→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Yisrael Beiteinu −28pp 57→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Together −27pp 60→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · The Democrats −24pp 48→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Shas −24pp 38→14¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Likud, Israel's largest right-wing party led by Benjamin Netanyahu, will be included in the next government coalition. At 41%, the market suggests roughly even odds for Likud's participation, reflecting political uncertainty in Israel's fractious parliament. The probability is shaped by two main dynamics: first, Likud's traditional role as a major coalition player due to its size and electoral strength, which pulls the probability higher; second, potential political realignment or court-related developments affecting Netanyahu's viability as a coalition partner, which could lower it. The probability will likely shift significantly when elections are called or scheduled, when coalition negotiations begin following any electoral results, or if major legal or political developments affect Netanyahu's status. Comparison contracts show Blue and White at 53% and smaller parties like Otzma Yehudit at 33%, suggesting the market is pricing substantial uncertainty about coalition composition.

### Key factors

- Likud's historical position as Israel's largest right-wing party typically gives it coalition leverage, but 41% pricing indicates market uncertainty about this assumption holding
- Netanyahu's ongoing legal proceedings and potential disqualification represent a concrete factor that could materially reduce Likud's inclusion probability
- Blue and White's 53% probability versus Likud's 41% suggests market expectation of a government excluding or sidelining Likud, conditional on specific coalition formation
- Contract volumes ($69-71 24h vol across multiple parties) indicate meaningful liquidity but also suggest these probabilities remain genuinely uncertain rather than consensus
- The spread between related contracts (Noam 41%, Otzma Yehudit 33%, Shas 38%) indicates traders are differentiated coalition scenarios rather than pricing all outcomes similarly

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/israelgovt
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=israelgovt

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