# Israeli forces enter Beirut by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 20 contracts — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/israeli-forces-enter-beirut
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:35:55.358Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $105K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 11¢ | −2pp | $45K | polymarket | /markets/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-december-31-polymarket-0x2f224fca80a6a6b3a2a200406473fc8b33da6bcf5af83dc3fe9021a541c0519d |
| June 30 | 3¢ | −1pp | $43K | polymarket | /markets/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30-polymarket-0x43272c02b8407ed3f8d5b04fb4cb132d7a59c5df6ecc423afcf66f1c778d1887 |
| June 30 | 12¢ | −1pp | $5K | polymarket | /markets/mara-corina-machado-enters-venezuela-by-june-30-polymarket-0x8d6e53e9c96faed715f6fe20d7d1944f31bf203f980d8f3d94304c0a302381fc |
| May 31 | 22¢ | −3pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-novyi-donbas-by-may-31-polymarket-0x5298a3e5e94c53db578af5b5e66b48e41f0b5accb2781776cfa218c43301fd39 |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | 41¢ | −1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-by-june-30-polymarket-0x9049d96597900ba0f3013604dc7adc3dd6e7e4764c5a0c16318605c40ac1ee96 |
| May 31 | 43¢ | −6pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-vasylivka-by-may-31-polymarket-0x90e10022b250ed02d7c16dc159baa4822a4b35f1333e36e2fad968cb26efaf8d |
| May 31 | 74¢ | −6pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-novooleksandrivka-by-may-31-polymarket-0x6fd1df75a50347e4ec77ce31419d4a672a11485ceeef337cc0fbef6bb1edaf1c |
| June 30 | 14¢ | −1pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-orikhiv-by-june-30-polymarket-0x208a4b23ae06cc9835815525d6b320d967194feac920693a7bd52b8ff2950610 |
| June 30 | 15¢ | −4pp | $953 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-svitle-by-june-30-polymarket-0x0d41f6afb4963a0f8eb06b7bfe5deef3a89f5486e9cb3f001203c8e1063cb27a |
| June 30 | 12¢ | −2pp | $766 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-dobropillia-by-june-30-polymarket-0x3e63b0a9b1af05fb0d5ffcbf13e98b0fb047d80d51e93dab7e6d898f1e5faf1f |
| May 31 | 24¢ | −7pp | $705 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-krasnopillya-by-may-31-polymarket-0xb744bc19070b0c84fde101c0b4dc81f7192a3d65723b594db1e30596608d7dc5 |
| June 30 | 31¢ | −11pp | $655 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-shevchenko-by-june-30-polymarket-0x3e314306f5af508143e1f0e7d52de77b2c731b40575360c14ab638cb246e3643 |
| May 31 | 21¢ | −11pp | $295 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-myrne-by-may-31-polymarket-0x9391cd96f6460f60435128788264ad7abf7fc7480a3aef5edec6267d98d531b4 |
| June 30 | 31¢ | −3pp | $178 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-novyi-donbas-by-june-30-polymarket-0xbf175df87f4cbcbcd65d85866b9e837e0ef1f2d0f1c14b6e01791ec28c3413fa |
| May 31 | 8¢ | +1pp | $162 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-dobropillia-by-may-31-polymarket-0x3d75d9d770daa68c07e758c47f67eb03f54d6172c42355628568e8ff02b26384 |
| July 31 | 21¢ | −1pp | $117 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-orikhiv-by-july-31-polymarket-0xe271ffb9e706a4e589437ffda8dd59b5ed53d98a31e5203698aa62c83b999e0a |
| May 31 | 20¢ | −2pp | $100 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-borova-by-may-31-polymarket-0xec843b00542f8aae316ade26229c9f88846f3af47c59d783deb7854a9594de04 |
| May 31 | 10¢ | −25pp | $71 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-stinky-by-may-31-polymarket-0xe26dcffeba8a94632df98acb0b16171557558e9677f161d4602232e7fd328415 |
| May 31 | 25¢ | +4pp | $8 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-may-31-polymarket-0xda70183170dabffacfcaf4d3f28cc8d02654eebc5f3821d0573aa9468d5acf6d |
| May 31 | 5¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-svitle-by-may-31-polymarket-0x46ea2e53c079a9b8e2379413eaf1ff7a752e4f79ec5fa472b4cd822d77eb77d5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 31 |
| 2026-04-19 | 27 |
| 2026-04-26 | 39 |
| 2026-05-03 | 25 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-27 · May 31 +27pp 16→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · June 30 −26pp 46→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · May 31 −25pp 39→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · June 30 +24pp 50→74¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · June 30 −24pp 70→46¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/israeli-forces-enter-beirut
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=israeli-forces-enter-beirut

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.