# Israeli Legislative Election Winner

> Likud leads at 51%, runner-up 44% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 39 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/israeli-legislative-election-winner
Updated: 2026-05-25T00:20:07.167Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-27

## Headline

- Leader: Likud at 51%
- Runner-up: Together at 44%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $177

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likud | 51¢ | — | $58 | polymarket | /markets/israeli-legislative-election-winner-likud-polymarket-0xf77fa3e63014f1f76ea4433dac66b3860493ed7f1a9fee3dfbef9104d7f1eee3 |
| Together | 44¢ | — | $119 | polymarket | /markets/israeli-legislative-election-winner-together-polymarket-0x4e9cff8a3aeac036225fedcc98af9b0d55284b3f430b599e7f61b059c1e177af |
| Yashar | 5¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/israeli-legislative-election-winner-yashar-polymarket-0xd05da9807740aa0f5bc9e9232daabe87a21e5012c19e283abf414f1c1651118b |
| Otzma Yehudit | 3¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/israeli-legislative-election-winner-otzma-yehudit-polymarket-0x49b2c8eac865bbac235153824b3490185ff0fdb7305cb053b2ab5b1466bf4f36 |
| The Democrats | 3¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/israeli-legislative-election-winner-the-democrats-polymarket-0x4a48f706471324eb289b2a77a368f7cfc3cdbf899ea320395e9afaa9191570e9 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Likud | Together | Yashar |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | 51 | 43 | 8 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations for which coalition or party will win the most seats in Israel's next legislative election, with Likud currently priced slightly ahead of the Together bloc. The outcome depends primarily on voter turnout patterns, recent polling shifts, and the distribution of undecided voters across Israel's fragmented political landscape. The main driver of uncertainty is the timing and final results of the election itself—currently scheduled but subject to political developments that could trigger early dissolution of the Knesset. Secondary factors include coalition-formation dynamics after the election, as the largest bloc doesn't automatically form government. Trading volume is concentrated in the Likud and Together contracts, suggesting the market views this as essentially a two-way race, with minimal probability assigned to smaller parties.

### Key factors

- Likud is priced 8 percentage points above Together despite polling showing closer margins; this gap may reflect market assumptions about coalition mechanics or turnout
- Combined probability for Likud and Together exceeds 90%, indicating the market assigns negligible chance to smaller parties winning the most seats
- Low 24-hour trading volume on Likud (vs. Together at $63) despite higher odds suggests less active price discovery on the frontrunner
- No recent polling data release date is noted, leaving the contract exposed to unexpected survey results that could shift probabilities materially
- Election date confirmation and any political instability that might trigger early elections or delay voting are primary catalysts for resolution

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/israeli-legislative-election-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=israeli-legislative-election-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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