# Will Yashar win the next Israeli legislative election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 3 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/israelknesset
Updated: 2026-08-10T07:20:52.226Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-10-27

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $178

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Together | 3¢ | ±0 | $150 | kalshi | /markets/will-together-win-the-next-israeli-legislative-ele-kalshi-kxisraelknesset-26-toge |
| Likud | 52¢ | −1pp | $28 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-israeli-legislative-election-kalshi-kxisraelknesset-26-lik |
| Yashar | 36¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yashar-win-the-next-israeli-legislative-elect-kalshi-kxisraelknesset-26-yas |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | 36 |
| 2026-07-27 | 32 |
| 2026-08-03 | 44 |
| 2026-08-10 | 3 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-07 · Yashar +5pp 28→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Likud −4pp 59→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Yashar −3pp 30→27¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the current market expectation that Yashar will win a plurality of seats in Israel's next legislative election. At 29%, traders see Yashar as a meaningful but not primary contender, trailing Likud significantly at 44%. Yashar's position depends on several variables: whether the current coalition holds or collapses, how voter preferences shift in response to economic and security developments, and whether smaller parties consolidate around alternative blocs. The actual election date will be the key catalyst that resolves this uncertainty—Israeli governments typically serve four-year terms, but early elections can be triggered by coalition breakdown. Until specific election timing is announced, the market is pricing in moderate uncertainty about Yashar's electoral prospects relative to established parties like Likud and together candidates.

### Key factors

- Likud maintains a 15-point probability lead (44% vs 29%), indicating market consensus favors incumbent coalition parties over Yashar
- The timing of the next election is not yet fixed; early elections require coalition collapse, which would significantly reshape voter calculations
- Yashar's probability reflects neither a frontrunner nor a marginal position, suggesting traders assess it as a genuine alternative without clear path to plurality
- Historical Israeli electoral patterns show coalition negotiations and bloc-level dynamics often matter more than individual party polls
- Zero trading volume on Yashar and Together contracts in the last 24 hours suggests limited recent information flow or conviction among traders

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/israelknesset
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=israelknesset
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.