# Will Lachlan Gaskell win the Malla vs Gaskell

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 48% across 6 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/itfmatch
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:26.158Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-20

## Headline

- Probability: 48% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $577

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M15 Vero Beach FL Semifinal match?: Liam Krall | 13¢ | — | $246 | kalshi | /markets/will-liam-krall-win-the-rybakov-vs-krall-m15-vero-kalshi-kxitfmatch-26may09rybkra-kra |
| M25 Villa Maria Semifinal match?: Juan Bautista Torres | 63¢ | — | $216 | kalshi | /markets/will-juan-bautista-torres-win-the-torres-vs-ambrog-kalshi-kxitfmatch-26may09toramb-tor |
| M15 Vero Beach FL Semifinal match?: Alex Rybakov | 87¢ | — | $115 | kalshi | /markets/will-alex-rybakov-win-the-rybakov-vs-krall-m15-ver-kalshi-kxitfmatch-26may09rybkra-ryb |
| M15 Vero Beach FL Semifinal match?: Quinn Vandecasteele | 73¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-quinn-vandecasteele-win-the-vandecasteele-vs-kalshi-kxitfmatch-26may09vanalm-van |
| M15 Vero Beach FL Semifinal match?: Joaquim Almeida | 19¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-joaquim-almeida-win-the-vandecasteele-vs-alme-kalshi-kxitfmatch-26may09vanalm-alm |
| M25 Villa Maria Semifinal match?: LUCIANO EMANUEL AMBROGI | 31¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-luciano-emanuel-ambrogi-win-the-torres-vs-amb-kalshi-kxitfmatch-26may09toramb-amb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 39 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/itfmatch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=itfmatch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.