# Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q1 2026 be above -0.2%

> Above -0.4% leads at 93%, runner-up 90% across 14 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 54 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/itgdpqoqa
Updated: 2026-06-26T12:20:49.346Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-30

## Headline

- Leader: Above -0.4% at 93%
- Runner-up: Above -0.3% at 90%
- Outcomes: 14 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.4% | 93¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t-0.4 |
| Above -0.3% | 90¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t-0.3 |
| Above -0.2% | 78¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t-0.2 |
| Above -0.1% | 65¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t-0.1 |
| Above -0.0% | 52¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t-0.0 |
| Above 0.1% | 40¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t0.1 |
| Above 0.2% | 27¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t0.2 |
| Above 0.3% | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t0.3 |
| Above 0.7% | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t0.7 |
| Above 0.9% | 12¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t0.9 |
| Above 0.6% | 9¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t0.6 |
| Above 0.4% | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t0.4 |
| Above 0.5% | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t0.5 |
| Above 1.0% | 3¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t1.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above -0.4% | Above -0.3% | Above -0.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 5 | 19 | 6 |
| 2026-06-11 | 93 | 91 | 78 |
| 2026-06-18 | 93 | 90 | 77 |
| 2026-06-19 | — | 91 | 78 |
| 2026-06-26 | 93 | 90 | 80 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Above -0.2% +4pp 78→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above -0.2% −3pp 82→79¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market assesses whether Italy's quarterly economic growth will exceed -0.2% in the first quarter of 2026. The 66% probability reflects trader expectations of modest positive or near-flat growth rather than contraction. Italian GDP growth depends heavily on eurozone conditions, domestic consumption, and industrial output. The assessment balances recent economic resilience against structural headwinds in manufacturing and external demand. Official quarterly GDP data from Italy's statistical agency (Istat) will be released in early May 2026, definitively resolving the outcome. Until then, interim economic indicators—industrial production, purchasing manager surveys, and consumer confidence—will provide directional signals.

### Key factors

- Italy's recent quarterly GDP trends show whether the economy has maintained momentum or slipped into contraction territory
- Eurozone monetary policy and external demand conditions directly affect Italian export-oriented manufacturing and overall growth capacity
- Domestic consumption patterns and labor market conditions in Q1 2026 determine whether internal demand can offset any external slowdown
- Istat's preliminary GDP estimate release date in May 2026 serves as the binding resolution point for market settlement
- Prior economic forecasts from institutions like the European Commission or ECB provide baseline expectations against which Q1 actual growth will be measured

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/itgdpqoqa
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=itgdpqoqa
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

## License

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