# Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 be above -1%

> Above -0.6% leads at 93%, runner-up 93% across 15 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/itgdpyoya
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:50.791Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-30

## Headline

- Leader: Above -0.6% at 93%
- Runner-up: Above -0.8% at 93%
- Outcomes: 15 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.6% | 93¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpyoya-26jul30-t-0.6 |
| Above -0.8% | 93¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpyoya-26jul30-t-0.8 |
| Above -0.4% | 92¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpyoya-26jul30-t-0.4 |
| Above -0.2% | 91¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpyoya-26jul30-t-0.2 |
| Above 0.0% | 89¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpyoya-26jul30-t0.0 |
| Above 0.2% | 89¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpyoya-26jul30-t0.2 |
| Above 0.4% | 88¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpyoya-26jul30-t0.4 |
| Above 0.6% | 70¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpyoya-26jul30-t0.6 |
| Above 0.8% | 52¢ | +1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpyoya-26jul30-t0.8 |
| Above 1.0% | 35¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpyoya-26jul30-t1.0 |
| Above 1.2% | 18¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpyoya-26jul30-t1.2 |
| Above 1.6% | 8¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpyoya-26jul30-t1.6 |
| Above 1.8% | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpyoya-26jul30-t1.8 |
| Above 1.4% | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpyoya-26jul30-t1.4 |
| Above 2.0% | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpyoya-26jul30-t2.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above -0.6% | Above -0.8% | Above -0.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 30 | 16 | 5 |
| 2026-06-11 | 93 | 94 | 92 |
| 2026-06-18 | 93 | 94 | 92 |
| 2026-06-25 | 92 | 93 | 91 |
| 2026-06-26 | 93 | — | 92 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market is pricing a 94% probability that Italy's year-over-year GDP growth for Q2 2026 will exceed -0.8%, meaning traders expect Italy to avoid a severe contraction. The high probability reflects modest confidence in stabilization rather than robust growth—the spread of contracts shows meaningful uncertainty about whether growth will reach 0%, with prices declining from 89¢ at that threshold to 94¢ at -0.8%. Italy's economic trajectory depends heavily on eurozone monetary policy, domestic consumption patterns, and labor market resilience. The official Q2 2026 GDP release from ISTAT (Italian National Institute of Statistics), typically published in late August 2026, will resolve this question. Until then, traders are weighting recent inflation trends, European Central Bank policy signals, and Italian employment data as proxies for growth expectations.

### Key factors

- Current market pricing implies ~94% confidence in avoiding GDP contraction below -0.8% YoY, but only 89% confidence in growth above 0%—a 5-point spread indicating material uncertainty about the direction of growth
- Q2 2026 GDP data will be published by ISTAT in late August 2026, making this a medium-term forecast with roughly 10-12 weeks of economic data accumulation before resolution
- Italian GDP growth is sensitive to eurozone-wide monetary conditions and consumer spending; persistent eurozone weakness or contracting domestic demand would push the probability lower
- The contract ladder structure shows traders assign meaningful probability mass to a range from -0.8% to 0.0%, suggesting consensus that modest positive or near-zero growth is possible but not assured
- Recent Italian labor market performance and industrial production trends serve as leading indicators; significant deterioration in either would likely compress growth expectations downward

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/itgdpyoya
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=itgdpyoya
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

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