# Jack Doherty Prison Time — 5+ Years

> No Prison Time leads at 77%, runner-up 30% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/jack-doherty-prison-time
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:41.709Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-31

## Headline

- Leader: No Prison Time at 77%
- Runner-up: <2 Years at 30%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $71

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Prison Time | 77¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/jack-doherty-prison-time-no-prison-time-polymarket-0xf06de23a5467a2e5d82b40c1d9d63c361612861cf74148071083f28d0372e010 |
| <2 Years | 30¢ | ±0 | $71 | polymarket | /markets/jack-doherty-prison-time-2-years-polymarket-0xd0dc167a8390914eaae948681eb70add44ca08147cae46bb2d1d800bfc11fb73 |
| 5+ Years | 19¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/jack-doherty-prison-time-5-years-polymarket-0x12cd8cfbe20dcc0d57853f5f3f54fcf60d1e94279321e92d0fe89262d661eae8 |
| 2-5 Years | 10¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/jack-doherty-prison-time-2-5-years-polymarket-0xe631687559fb84616934e96a1c66b4322fac1cf4648b1bb2a72ae8d14d98ea16 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | No Prison Time | <2 Years | 5+ Years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 94 | 3 | 3 |
| 2026-04-25 | 78 | 6 | 3 |
| 2026-05-02 | 70 | 5 | 9 |
| 2026-05-09 | 82 | 5 | 17 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · No Prison Time +18pp 70→88¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 5+ Years +12pp 9→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · No Prison Time −11pp 88→77¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · No Prison Time +6pp 76→82¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 2-5 Years −5pp 16→11¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market prices the probability that Jack Doherty receives a prison sentence of 5 or more years at 87%, based on aggregated trading across multiple contracts. Doherty, a content creator, faces legal charges that traders believe carry significant risk of substantial incarceration. The high probability reflects trader assessment that evidence or charges support a lengthy sentence, though 13% of contracts still price in shorter sentences or lighter outcomes. Key drivers include the specific charges filed, any plea negotiations, and sentencing guidelines applicable to his case. Resolution depends on final judicial sentencing, which determines whether the 5+ year threshold is met. Trading volume remains minimal, suggesting limited market liquidity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads.

### Key factors

- Specific criminal charges filed against Doherty and their statutory sentencing ranges
- Status of plea negotiations and any prosecution-defense agreements that might reduce sentencing exposure
- Prior sentencing patterns by the assigned judge in comparable cases
- Whether charges include mandatory minimum provisions that would push sentences above 5 years
- Timing of trial or sentencing hearing, which creates a discrete resolution event

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/jack-doherty-prison-time
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=jack-doherty-prison-time

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.