# Jaguares de Córdoba FC vs. Cúcuta Deportivo FC - More Markets: Cúcuta Deportivo FC (-2.5)

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/jaguares-de-crdoba-fc-vs-ccuta-deportivo-fc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-06T06:35:47.035Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 26% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $968

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) | 9¢ | −20pp | $384 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-tky-ve-polymarket-0x2ae2ebd1fd8f36dee4140d1e5d50addade8319b01b9486d126f98e2e54d468c8 |
| O/U 1.5 | 67¢ | +36pp | $243 | polymarket | /markets/deportivo-la-guaira-fc-vs-club-bolvar-more-markets-polymarket-0xbd91ad1dd1092ee5a1009fbcc1d1d5913a88eb365bdbd6060c7134171162e563 |
| Both Teams to Score | 49¢ | +53pp | $144 | polymarket | /markets/deportivo-la-guaira-fc-vs-club-bolvar-more-markets-polymarket-0x7dbbccb5586a821294b220131acd0a7aab90279e4eb59d0a02c3f9fc7b885def |
| O/U 2.5 | 41¢ | −41pp | $94 | polymarket | /markets/deportivo-la-guaira-fc-vs-club-bolvar-more-markets-polymarket-0x918a9b1ce8e32f88972d72c122fc178984be922ae72e3399c77fec7eb07e2eb7 |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | — | $82 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x4612ca5173a5a4fcf85507aeb04a8592bc10dda7e82aa160ccf2a48ee08c3182 |
| O/U 3.5 | 21¢ | −16pp | $20 | polymarket | /markets/deportivo-la-guaira-fc-vs-club-bolvar-more-markets-polymarket-0x235d60e0163af27aa6b6d1916db83cdca7d4948c01b0d9756171b581dcafe322 |
| Club Bolívar (-2.5) | 5¢ | −13pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/deportivo-la-guaira-fc-vs-club-bolvar-more-markets-polymarket-0x0a4cf4790e54377ef6360757acfc13f4e485f7d7388476acad7f1e929e4ca0fc |
| Deportivo La Guaira FC (-2.5) | 4¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/deportivo-la-guaira-fc-vs-club-bolvar-more-markets-polymarket-0x457f5048aaa471799b0d7ad737d3d26c7a76086381b8a42c41ec13b0d080fc0a |
| Deportivo La Guaira FC (-1.5) | 13¢ | −16pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/deportivo-la-guaira-fc-vs-club-bolvar-more-markets-polymarket-0xf2f098f5eda100471264ebf59f81e0bf9e4b54a5525d64d5fea2fc319552756f |
| Club Bolívar (-1.5) | 14¢ | −11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/deportivo-la-guaira-fc-vs-club-bolvar-more-markets-polymarket-0xf9ba9e37163b942d21fe87d4a37ac1ee10be7dc3a38950355e1acedc5ad3120c |
| O/U 4.5 | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/deportivo-la-guaira-fc-vs-club-bolvar-more-markets-polymarket-0x7516361f3651865a62c39a69e685cb4884c8ce056b8a6e6ea5c07202ae25dd07 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 28 |
| 2026-05-03 | 28 |
| 2026-05-06 | 25 |
| 2026-05-07 | 29 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Both Teams to Score +53pp 47→100¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · O/U 2.5 −41pp 41→0¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · O/U 1.5 +36pp 64→100¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) −20pp 26→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Both Teams to Score −16pp 63→47¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a 33% probability that Cúcuta Deportivo FC will win by more than 2.5 goals against Jaguares de Córdoba FC. The relatively low probability suggests market participants expect either a close match or a Jaguares victory. Key drivers of this level include recent form and head-to-head records between the Colombian clubs, as well as lineup availability and home-field advantage. The match itself, scheduled for its kickoff date, will directly resolve this contract once final results are confirmed. Current trading volume on related markets remains modest, indicating limited liquidity around this specific fixture and suggesting the probability may shift as more information becomes available closer to game time.

### Key factors

- Cúcuta's recent goal-scoring record and whether they've consistently achieved 3+ goal margins in recent fixtures
- Jaguares' defensive performance metrics and their typical goal concession rate in home matches
- Head-to-head historical results between these teams, particularly margin of victory patterns
- Team news regarding key players, injuries, or suspensions that could impact attacking or defensive capability
- Market depth and trading activity—whether increased volume reflects new information or remains thin relative to other Colombian football matches

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/jaguares-de-crdoba-fc-vs-ccuta-deportivo-fc-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=jaguares-de-crdoba-fc-vs-ccuta-deportivo-fc-more-markets

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.