# 2026 James Beard Award for Best New Restaurant

> Adrian Torres leads at 30%, runner-up 25% across 17 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/jamesbeard
Updated: 2026-05-28T23:20:07.437Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-06-16

## Headline

- Leader: Adrian Torres at 30%
- Runner-up: Kalaya at 25%
- Outcomes: 17 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Torres | 30¢ | — | $111 | kalshi | /markets/2026-james-beard-award-for-emerging-chef-presented-kalshi-kxjamesbeard-36-ec-adr |
| Kalaya | 25¢ | — | $200 | kalshi | /markets/2026-james-beard-award-for-outstanding-restaurant-kalshi-kxjamesbeard-36-or-kal |
| Loma | 21¢ | +4pp | $200 | kalshi | /markets/2026-james-beard-award-for-best-new-bar-loma-kalshi-kxjamesbeard-36-bnb-lom |
| Bailey Sullivan | 20¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-james-beard-award-for-emerging-chef-presented-kalshi-kxjamesbeard-36-ec-bai |
| Smuggler's Cove | 19¢ | — | $200 | kalshi | /markets/2026-james-beard-award-for-outstanding-bar-smuggle-kalshi-kxjamesbeard-36-oba-smu |
| Cultured | 19¢ | — | $200 | kalshi | /markets/2026-james-beard-award-for-outstanding-bakery-cult-kalshi-kxjamesbeard-36-ob-cul |
| Clemente Bar | 18¢ | +5pp | $160 | kalshi | /markets/2026-james-beard-award-for-best-new-bar-clemente-b-kalshi-kxjamesbeard-36-bnb-cle |
| Fátima Juárez | 18¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-james-beard-award-for-emerging-chef-presented-kalshi-kxjamesbeard-36-ec-fat |
| Onyx Coffee Lab | 17¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-james-beard-award-for-outstanding-bar-onyx-co-kalshi-kxjamesbeard-36-oba-ony |
| E.J. Lagasse | 17¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-james-beard-award-for-emerging-chef-presented-kalshi-kxjamesbeard-36-ec-ej |
| Anjin | 13¢ | — | $96 | kalshi | /markets/2026-james-beard-award-for-best-new-restaurant-anj-kalshi-kxjamesbeard-36-bnr-anj |
| Tamba | 12¢ | — | $49 | kalshi | /markets/2026-james-beard-award-for-best-new-restaurant-tam-kalshi-kxjamesbeard-36-bnr-tam |
| Josh Niernberg | 9¢ | — | $466 | kalshi | /markets/2026-james-beard-award-for-outstanding-chef-josh-n-kalshi-kxjamesbeard-36-oc-jos |
| Bow & Arrow Brewing Co. | 8¢ | — | $200 | kalshi | /markets/2026-james-beard-award-for-outstanding-bar-bow-arr-kalshi-kxjamesbeard-36-oba-bow |
| David Standridge | 7¢ | −5pp | $200 | kalshi | /markets/2026-james-beard-award-for-outstanding-chef-david-kalshi-kxjamesbeard-36-oc-dav |
| Rasheeda Purdie | 6¢ | — | $200 | kalshi | /markets/2026-james-beard-award-for-emerging-chef-presented-kalshi-kxjamesbeard-36-ec-ras |
| Emmett | 6¢ | — | $49 | kalshi | /markets/2026-james-beard-award-for-best-new-restaurant-emm-kalshi-kxjamesbeard-36-bnr-emm |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Adrian Torres | Kalaya | Loma |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 18 | 19 | 17 |
| 2026-05-28 | — | — | 21 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · David Standridge −5pp 12→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Clemente Bar +5pp 13→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Loma +4pp 17→21¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 42% probability indicates that a specific restaurant has roughly 2-in-5 odds of winning the 2026 James Beard Award for Best New Restaurant based on current market pricing. This probability reflects limited trading activity—only 20 contracts across Kalshi with modest daily volume—suggesting relatively thin liquidity and uncertainty among bettors. The award winner will be determined when the James Beard Foundation announces results, likely in spring 2026. Key factors moving this probability would include media coverage of finalist restaurants, chef reputation and press mentions, any scandal or controversy affecting contenders, and industry insider sentiment as the voting deadline approaches. The relative thinness of trading activity means individual contract shifts can move the headline price meaningfully, so the current level should be interpreted cautiously as a gauge of incomplete market conviction rather than a consensus forecast.

### Key factors

- Only 20 contracts traded across all Best New Restaurant outcomes, indicating thin liquidity and limited confidence in price discovery
- The leading contract trades at 42¢ while the runner-up sits at 35¢, suggesting modest separation between top contenders rather than clear market consensus
- Daily trading volume averages $320 or less per related contract, implying minimal information flow and sporadic buyer/seller participation
- The James Beard Award voting and announcement timeline will be the primary event determining resolution, with no intermediate data points to adjust probability
- Related contracts across different James Beard categories (Outstanding Bar, Emerging Chef) show prices clustered between 8¢ and 35¢, reflecting uncertainty across multiple restaurant-related awards

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/jamesbeard
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=jamesbeard

## License

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