# Japan J. League

> Winner: Sanfrecce Hiroshima leads at 49%, runner-up 48% across 13 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/japan-j-league
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:38.106Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-08

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 49%
- Runner-up: Winner: Kashima Antlers at 48%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/japan-j-league-winner-sanfrecce-hiroshima-polymarket-0xf899de03b84767769abcae20a5138264ddc41023f2b3c3792f63abe95154ee48 |
| Winner: Kashima Antlers | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/japan-j-league-winner-kashima-antlers-polymarket-0x87f91d2ce8920ed31bdc1d17d2756ae2e62986ab3a317b9ed95590bf13d728aa |
| Winner: Kyoto Sanga | 45¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/japan-j-league-winner-kyoto-sanga-polymarket-0x3b3749826081f0e7daf40a4a381e99068a03a133f6bf3f53bbc78470639ac1bf |
| Winner: FC Machida Zelvia | 44¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/japan-j-league-winner-fc-machida-zelvia-polymarket-0x5dffee53d2af6034f7f89883ebc03face91f83472da0ccdd7cd8e0c4d28a3fc4 |
| Winner: FC Tokyo | 44¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/japan-j-league-winner-fc-tokyo-polymarket-0x4e68e685989854a05f9a9d01dd59dd9d00344d6eca1d4341eedaa809156f2d57 |
| Winner: Tokyo Verdy | 44¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/japan-j-league-winner-tokyo-verdy-polymarket-0x8de517814251e3346e0d47d7a0be89914ccf0db24289646c5b72f9e00d26d544 |
| Winner: Gamba Osaka | 44¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/japan-j-league-winner-gamba-osaka-polymarket-0x3d3730fdc33bad48778f0b82df6ecdc29e710bf7aa1ef29e7abfa6a3ec9ccb4e |
| Winner: Vissel Kobe | 44¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/japan-j-league-winner-vissel-kobe-polymarket-0x9281f0ec4743dcdf8dddab317885e4446ec17a339aad5bc668e8f99204ff1517 |
| Winner: Shimizu S-Pulse | 44¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/japan-j-league-winner-shimizu-s-pulse-polymarket-0x13efdc893c50b70784b207d779c9761032615aac0946e73b0753ebae5158090b |
| Winner: Nagoya Grampus | 44¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/japan-j-league-winner-nagoya-grampus-polymarket-0xcd32834bd4059fad313b1f00dbba3f3c4fd697b3c2db0feb0ca9e82d43d620ab |
| Winner: V-Varen Nagasaki | 44¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/japan-j-league-winner-v-varen-nagasaki-polymarket-0x2fb4bdb421fe2c91dfd47bba38a7306e4f1d75627a7305e6f22611926efc5bfe |
| Winner: Cerezo Osaka | 44¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/japan-j-league-winner-cerezo-osaka-polymarket-0xf032f7d19b37d448bbe749ddac2237a764f4607126f7fa1659832c668b1f93b1 |
| Winner: Fagiano Okayama | 44¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/japan-j-league-winner-fagiano-okayama-polymarket-0xbaa4e2bff5a168e3143f1b788d3d3186e5c8566b06acdfedf718a137d4f44c24 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Winner: Kashima Antlers | Winner: Kyoto Sanga |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 49 | — | — |
| 2026-04-26 | 48 | 48 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 50 | 49 | 49 |
| 2026-04-29 | 50 | 50 | 47 |
| 2026-04-30 | 49 | 49 | 46 |
| 2026-05-02 | 48 | 49 | — |
| 2026-05-09 | 49 | 49 | — |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This represents the estimated probability that a specific team will win Japan's J. League championship during the 2026 season. The current 50% level reflects one team being priced as the leading contender, with uncertainty driven by recent performance metrics, squad depth, and injury status. The upcoming months of league matches will clarify competitive positioning as standings develop and teams' true form becomes apparent through actual results. Key catalysts include fixture outcomes against direct rivals and any significant roster changes before the mid-season transfer window closes.

### Key factors

- Current league standings and point differential relative to competing teams as of May 2026
- Injury status of key players, particularly starting forwards and defensive lineups
- Recent head-to-head results and goal differential in direct matchups against other title contenders
- Historical win rates in away matches, which typically account for roughly half of season points
- Squad depth and consistency through the remaining fixture schedule, particularly performance in consecutive games

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/japan-j-league
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=japan-j-league

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.