# Japan vs. Sweden

> Japan leads at 47%, runner-up 38% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/japan-vs-sweden
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:25.860Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-25

## Headline

- Leader: Japan at 47%
- Runner-up: Sweden at 38%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $14

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 47¢ | −12pp | $14 | polymarket | /markets/japan-vs-sweden-japan-polymarket-0xe1bd581c13be7103749ca1a64d21230ed6693a162fc057d81e3d1e9237fc81f8 |
| Sweden | 38¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/japan-vs-sweden-sweden-polymarket-0x8f0238f109028445232328dce2ff342cb92207a4e9e0e0dda195f1644655b2ab |
| Draw (Japan vs. Sweden) | 35¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/japan-vs-sweden-draw-japan-vs-sweden-polymarket-0x9e9014ddc6e6386e9bbd6bb8e6bd0049094ebaa3fa2eabf51055b2439c08a075 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Japan | Sweden | Draw (Japan vs. Sweden) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | — | 41 | — |
| 2026-05-01 | — | 40 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 59 | 36 | 34 |
| 2026-05-06 | — | 39 | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 47 | 42 | 39 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Japan −12pp 59→47¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Draw (Japan vs. Sweden) +5pp 34→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Sweden −4pp 40→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Sweden +3pp 36→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Sweden +3pp 39→42¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 59% probability indicates that Japan is currently the favored outcome in a three-way market comparing Japan's performance against Sweden and other teams. The market is pricing in Japan's historical competitive strength and recent form, though the relatively low trading volume ($52-$405 across related contracts) suggests modest liquidity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads. Key factors shaping the odds include team composition changes, recent match results between these nations, weather conditions at the venue, and injury status of key players. The upcoming scheduled match between Japan and Sweden will directly resolve this uncertainty—the final outcome will confirm whether Japan maintained its competitive edge or if Sweden's performance exceeded market expectations. Until that fixture concludes, price movements will reflect shifts in pre-match analysis, team news, and betting flows from more active prediction markets.

### Key factors

- Japan's historical head-to-head record against Sweden in comparable tournaments or recent friendlies
- Recent form of both teams in official competitions leading up to this matchup
- Trading volume and spread disparities across related contracts suggest potential mispricings in the broader market
- Injury status or roster changes affecting key players for either Japan or Sweden
- The scheduled match date and any venue factors that could affect performance odds

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/japan-vs-sweden
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=japan-vs-sweden

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.