# Jeju SK FC vs. FC Seoul

> FC Seoul leads at 44%, runner-up 30% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 4 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/jeju-sk-fc-vs-fc-seoul
Updated: 2026-05-09T00:05:10.657Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-09

## Headline

- Leader: FC Seoul at 44%
- Runner-up: Draw (Jeju SK FC vs. FC Seoul) at 30%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $8K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Seoul | 44¢ | ±0 | $7K | polymarket | /markets/jeju-sk-fc-vs-fc-seoul-fc-seoul-polymarket-0x60ced2ae7dbc31bb14ffdde87e8951d1853899ac72224f9f0602fc28352252bb |
| Draw (Jeju SK FC vs. FC Seoul) | 30¢ | +1pp | $651 | polymarket | /markets/jeju-sk-fc-vs-fc-seoul-draw-jeju-sk-fc-vs-fc-seoul-polymarket-0x2217d79eef1e8392f826a3bbcc5c6a58f9c057628a39f4db14af1c204e0d644a |
| Jeju SK FC | 27¢ | −3pp | $253 | polymarket | /markets/jeju-sk-fc-vs-fc-seoul-jeju-sk-fc-polymarket-0x16cca82b29b70447e6032a3588102e0c3d955e1889a49bc8044eaa6e06a97430 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | FC Seoul | Draw (Jeju SK FC vs. FC Seoul) | Jeju SK FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 49 | — | 26 |
| 2026-05-07 | 48 | 29 | 23 |
| 2026-05-08 | 48 | 30 | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Jeju SK FC −3pp 26→23¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects traders' assessment that Jeju SK FC has a 46% chance of winning an upcoming match against FC Seoul, with a 34% probability assigned to a draw. The market is pricing Jeju SK FC as a slight favorite rather than a heavy one. The current pricing likely reflects recent form, head-to-head records, home/away status, and squad composition between the two K League clubs. Key variables moving this probability would include team injuries, recent performance trends, and betting market movements as the match date approaches. The match itself will resolve the contract when the final whistle sounds and an official result is recorded. Until then, the probability may shift based on new information about player availability, weather conditions, or significant tactical changes announced by either manager.

### Key factors

- Current odds show Jeju SK FC at 46% and a draw at 34%, leaving FC Seoul at approximately 20%, indicating the market views this as competitive but favors Jeju slightly
- Zero 24-hour trading volume on both visible contracts suggests limited recent market activity and potentially stale pricing
- The probability is driven by static factors (historical head-to-head, current league standings, squad quality) rather than dynamic pre-match information since no volume indicates no new information flow
- A draw outcome receiving 34% probability is material, suggesting the market expects a relatively tight, defensively-organized match rather than a decisive result
- Resolution depends entirely on the official match result; injuries, weather, or tactical announcements in the days before kick-off could cause significant probability shifts if trading resumes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/jeju-sk-fc-vs-fc-seoul
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=jeju-sk-fc-vs-fc-seoul

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.