# Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…

> Closed. Last odds frozen 5 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/jerome-powell-out-of-fed-board
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: economy · Topic: fed-rate
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 37% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $26

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 37¢ | +1pp | $26 | polymarket | /markets/jerome-powell-out-of-fed-board-by-december-31-polymarket-0xbb1e75fe2a97b994a0f1b20b8107330f575a752893b3c525439466d64f898463 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 45 |
| 2026-06-08 | 40 |
| 2026-06-17 | 36 |
| 2026-06-18 | 37 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market estimates that Jerome Powell will exit the Federal Reserve Board entirely by December 31, 2026—not just leave the Fed Chair role. Powell currently serves as Chair with a term extending to 2026, and Board membership involves separate statutory considerations. The 38% probability is notably higher than the sub-5% odds on earlier exits (May 30), suggesting markets price in some near-term risk but view a full exit by year-end as moderately unlikely. Key drivers include whether Powell faces pressure to resign versus complete a term, potential successor confirmation timelines, and political dynamics around Federal Reserve leadership. The most concrete near-term catalyst is any formal announcement regarding Powell's future plans, as well as legislative or executive branch actions affecting Fed governance.

### Key factors

- Powell's current Fed Chair term structure and whether completion of that role involves automatic Board departure
- Historical precedent for sitting Fed Chairs remaining on the Board after stepping down from the Chair position
- Political pressure and confirmation speed for potential Fed Chair successors, which could influence Powell's timeline
- Any legislative changes to Fed Board structure or term length that could trigger earlier departures
- Market differentiation between 'Chair exit' contracts (77-97¢) versus 'Board exit' contracts (4-39¢), indicating significant structural uncertainty

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

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