# Will Jerome Powell be removed as Fed Chair?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 35% across 9 contracts — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/jerome-powell-removed
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:10.628Z
Category: economy · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-31

## Headline

- Probability: 35% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $588

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 7¢ | −3pp | $317 | kalshi | /markets/will-jerome-powell-leave-member-of-the-board-of-go-kalshi-kxleavepowellgov-26aug01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 46¢ | +1pp | $96 | kalshi | /markets/will-jerome-powell-leave-member-of-the-board-of-go-kalshi-kxleavepowellgov-26aug01-27 |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 15¢ | ±0 | $95 | kalshi | /markets/will-jerome-powell-leave-member-of-the-board-of-go-kalshi-kxleavepowellgov-26sep01 |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 35¢ | ±0 | $79 | kalshi | /markets/will-jerome-powell-leave-member-of-the-board-of-go-kalshi-kxleavepowellgov-26dec01 |
| Before 2027 | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-president-try-to-fire-the-jerome-powell-a-kalshi-kxtryfirepowell-26may12-gov2 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 12¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jerome-powell-leave-member-of-the-board-of-go-kalshi-kxleavepowellgov-26oct01 |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 25¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jerome-powell-leave-member-of-the-board-of-go-kalshi-kxleavepowellgov-26nov01 |
| Before Jun 1, 2027 | 81¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jerome-powell-leave-member-of-the-board-of-go-kalshi-kxleavepowellgov-27jun01 |
| Before Jan 31, 2028 | 85¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jerome-powell-leave-member-of-the-board-of-go-kalshi-kxleavepowellgov-28jan31 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 49 |
| 2026-05-25 | 35 |
| 2026-06-01 | 41 |
| 2026-06-08 | 38 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-06 · Before Oct 1, 2026 −10pp 24→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Before Nov 1, 2026 −5pp 30→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Before Aug 1, 2026 −3pp 14→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Before Aug 1, 2026 −3pp 10→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Jerome Powell has not been removed from his position as a member of the Federal Reserve board. Prediction markets currently show only a 12% probability that the President will attempt to remove him from his role as Chair or Board member before January 1, 2027.

### Key factors

- 12% chance of firing attempt
- 45% chance of resignation before 2027
- Fed independence expectations
- Stable Fed board status

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/jerome-powell-removed
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=jerome-powell-removed
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

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