# Gamba vs Avispa Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 32% across 20 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/jleaguegame
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.194Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $539

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo | 51¢ | +1pp | $223 | kalshi | /markets/tokyo-vs-tokyo-v-winner-tokyo-kalshi-kxjleaguegame-26may10tokver-tok |
| Fagiano O | 14¢ | — | $85 | kalshi | /markets/kobe-vs-fagiano-o-winner-fagiano-o-kalshi-kxjleaguegame-26may10vikfag-fag |
| Tokyo V | 20¢ | — | $80 | kalshi | /markets/tokyo-vs-tokyo-v-winner-tokyo-v-kalshi-kxjleaguegame-26may10tokver-ver |
| Kashima | 45¢ | — | $74 | kalshi | /markets/marinos-vs-kashima-winner-kashima-kalshi-kxjleaguegame-26may10markas-kas |
| Kobe | 58¢ | — | $33 | kalshi | /markets/kobe-vs-fagiano-o-winner-kobe-kalshi-kxjleaguegame-26may10vikfag-vik |
| Hiroshima | 43¢ | — | $21 | kalshi | /markets/gamba-vs-hiroshima-winner-hiroshima-kalshi-kxjleaguegame-26may10gamsan-san |
| Marinos | 23¢ | +2pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/marinos-vs-kashima-winner-marinos-kalshi-kxjleaguegame-26may10markas-mar |
| Tie | 23¢ | +1pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/kobe-vs-fagiano-o-winner-tie-kalshi-kxjleaguegame-26may10vikfag-tie |
| Gamba | 27¢ | — | $3 | kalshi | /markets/gamba-vs-hiroshima-winner-gamba-kalshi-kxjleaguegame-26may10gamsan-gam |
| Nagoya | 40¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/nagoya-vs-kyoto-sanga-winner-nagoya-kalshi-kxjleaguegame-26may10ngekyo-nge |
| United Chiba | 17¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/united-chiba-vs-machida-z-winner-united-chiba-kalshi-kxjleaguegame-26may10jefmac-jef |
| Machida Z | 52¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/united-chiba-vs-machida-z-winner-machida-z-kalshi-kxjleaguegame-26may10jefmac-mac |
| Tie | 24¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/united-chiba-vs-machida-z-winner-tie-kalshi-kxjleaguegame-26may10jefmac-tie |
| Kashiwa | 45¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/kashiwa-vs-frontale-winner-kashiwa-kalshi-kxjleaguegame-26may10reykaw-rey |
| Frontale | 26¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/kashiwa-vs-frontale-winner-frontale-kalshi-kxjleaguegame-26may10reykaw-kaw |
| Tie | 24¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/kashiwa-vs-frontale-winner-tie-kalshi-kxjleaguegame-26may10reykaw-tie |
| Kyoto Sanga | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/nagoya-vs-kyoto-sanga-winner-kyoto-sanga-kalshi-kxjleaguegame-26may10ngekyo-kyo |
| Tie | 25¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/nagoya-vs-kyoto-sanga-winner-tie-kalshi-kxjleaguegame-26may10ngekyo-tie |
| Tie | 26¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/tokyo-vs-tokyo-v-winner-tie-kalshi-kxjleaguegame-26may10tokver-tie |
| Tie | 25¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gamba-vs-hiroshima-winner-tie-kalshi-kxjleaguegame-26may10gamsan-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 29 |
| 2026-05-08 | 31 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Machida Z +3pp 47→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Kashiwa +3pp 41→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Tie +3pp 21→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Tie +3pp 21→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Tie +3pp 22→25¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/jleaguegame
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=jleaguegame

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.