# How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Apr 18, 2026

> At least 180000 leads at 82%, runner-up 81% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/joblessclaims
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:35:53.462Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-07

## Headline

- Leader: At least 180000 at 82%
- Runner-up: At least 165000 at 81%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $744

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 180000 | 82¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-initial-jobless-claims-will-there-be-the-kalshi-kxjoblessclaims-26may07-180000 |
| At least 165000 | 81¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-initial-jobless-claims-will-there-be-the-kalshi-kxjoblessclaims-26may07-165000 |
| At least 170000 | 81¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-initial-jobless-claims-will-there-be-the-kalshi-kxjoblessclaims-26may07-170000 |
| At least 185000 | 76¢ | ±0 | $5 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-initial-jobless-claims-will-there-be-the-kalshi-kxjoblessclaims-26may07-185000 |
| At least 175000 | 76¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-initial-jobless-claims-will-there-be-the-kalshi-kxjoblessclaims-26may07-175000 |
| At least 190000 | 67¢ | ±0 | $10 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-initial-jobless-claims-will-there-be-the-kalshi-kxjoblessclaims-26may07-190000 |
| At least 195000 | 63¢ | +1pp | $88 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-initial-jobless-claims-will-there-be-the-kalshi-kxjoblessclaims-26may07-195000 |
| At least 200000 | 59¢ | +2pp | $271 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-initial-jobless-claims-will-there-be-the-kalshi-kxjoblessclaims-26may07-200000 |
| At least 210000 | 27¢ | +5pp | $356 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-initial-jobless-claims-will-there-be-the-kalshi-kxjoblessclaims-26may07-210000 |
| At least 205000 | 27¢ | −1pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-initial-jobless-claims-will-there-be-the-kalshi-kxjoblessclaims-26may07-205000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least 180000 | At least 165000 | At least 170000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 49 | 44 | 44 |
| 2026-05-01 | 89 | 64 | 67 |
| 2026-05-02 | 82 | 11 | 9 |
| 2026-05-03 | 82 | 11 | 9 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · At least 175000 −60pp 68→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · At least 170000 −58pp 67→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · At least 165000 −53pp 64→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · At least 185000 +42pp 40→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · At least 180000 +40pp 49→89¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the chance that initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18, 2026 will fall within a specific range. The prediction reflects current labor market conditions and expectations about employment trends. Market participants are split on this outcome, with Kalshi traders pricing it 10 percentage points higher than Polymarket traders, suggesting some disagreement about baseline employment stability. The final claims number will be released by the Department of Labor on a scheduled date, providing the definitive resolution. Key factors driving this probability include recent monthly employment reports, broader economic growth trends, and seasonal adjustments that typically apply to weekly claims data. Any significant shift in business hiring patterns or economic shocks would alter the probability materially.

### Key factors

- The actual weekly jobless claims figure released by the Department of Labor will determine the outcome; the data point has a precise, verifiable value
- Seasonal adjustment patterns for mid-April historically show typical volatility ranges that frame baseline expectations
- Recent monthly employment reports and hiring trends in the weeks prior would signal whether claims are likely to trend higher or lower than the baseline
- The 10 percentage point gap between venues suggests material disagreement about which range is most likely, indicating genuine uncertainty among traders
- Economic data releases between now and the official publication date could shift expectations about labor market conditions

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/joblessclaims
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=joblessclaims

## License

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