# Will Joy Morrissey join Reform UK before June 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 3 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/joinreform
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:27.393Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Francois | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mark-francois-join-reform-uk-before-june-2026-kalshi-kxjoinreform-26-mfra |
| Esther McVey | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-esther-mcvey-join-reform-uk-before-june-2026-kalshi-kxjoinreform-26-emcv |
| Joy Morrissey | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-joy-morrissey-join-reform-uk-before-june-2026-kalshi-kxjoinreform-26-jmor |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 7 |
| 2026-04-28 | 6 |
| 2026-05-02 | 4 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that Joy Morrissey, a current Conservative MP, will formally join the Reform UK party before the end of June 2026. The 5% assessment reflects that party switching mid-parliament is uncommon, though increasing numbers of Conservative MPs have migrated to Reform recently. The main factors keeping this probability low are Morrissey's established position within the Conservative Party and typical political inertia around defections. However, any movement would likely follow broader Conservative-to-Reform migration patterns or specific ideological divisions. The uncertainty will largely resolve through the end of June 2026, as any defection would be a public announcement rather than dependent on an external event.

### Key factors

- Morrissey's current status as a Conservative MP with no publicly stated intent to defect as of May 2026
- The relative frequency of mid-parliament defections from Conservative to Reform, with recent months showing elevated activity compared to historical norms
- Comparable defection probabilities for similar Conservative MPs (Esther McVey at 5%, Mark Francois at 7%) suggesting analyst consensus on defection likelihood within this cohort
- The time horizon of only four weeks remaining, limiting opportunity for major political events to trigger defection decisions
- Any public statements or actions by Morrissey regarding party satisfaction or alignment with Reform policies that might signal shifting intentions

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/joinreform
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=joinreform

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.