# Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administration

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 6% across 9 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/jointrumpadmin
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.062Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-01

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron DeSantis | 3¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ron-desantis-join-the-trump-administration-ro-kalshi-kxjointrumpadmin-26jul01-rdes |
| Glenn Youngkin | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-glenn-youngkin-join-the-trump-administration-kalshi-kxjointrumpadmin-26jul01-gyou |
| Rick Rieder | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rick-rieder-join-the-trump-administration-ric-kalshi-kxjointrumpadmin-26jul01-rrie |
| Eric Adams | 6¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-eric-adams-join-the-trump-administration-eric-kalshi-kxjointrumpadmin-26jul01-eada |
| Marc Rowan | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-marc-rowan-join-the-trump-administration-marc-kalshi-kxjointrumpadmin-26jul01-mrow |
| Steve Bannon | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-steve-bannon-join-the-trump-administration-st-kalshi-kxjointrumpadmin-26jul01-sban |
| Nicki Minaj | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nicki-minaj-join-the-trump-administration-nic-kalshi-kxjointrumpadmin-26jul01-nmin |
| Phil McGraw | 8¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-phil-mcgraw-join-the-trump-administration-phi-kalshi-kxjointrumpadmin-26jul01-pmcg |
| Ken Paxton | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ken-paxton-join-the-trump-administration-ken-kalshi-kxjointrumpadmin-26jul01-kpax |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 9 |
| 2026-04-25 | 32 |
| 2026-05-02 | 12 |
| 2026-05-08 | 6 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Glenn Youngkin −8pp 22→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Ron DeSantis −4pp 10→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Ron DeSantis −4pp 6→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Glenn Youngkin −3pp 14→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Nicki Minaj −3pp 7→4¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 8% probability reflects the market's assessment that Glenn Youngkin has a low likelihood of joining a Trump administration in the near term. Youngkin, Virginia's current governor, would need to either leave office or take a position while remaining governor. The probability is driven primarily by his stated focus on his gubernatorial role and limited public signals of interest in a federal appointment. Factors pushing this higher would include explicit statements from Trump or Youngkin about such an arrangement, or political circumstances making a departure from Virginia advantageous. The main resolution catalyst would be any formal announcement of a Trump cabinet or administration position, or the clear passage of time until the end of a potential Trump term makes such appointments less likely. Market interest remains modest, with relatively low trading volume compared to other potential Trump administration appointments.

### Key factors

- Youngkin has not publicly expressed interest in joining a Trump administration and remains focused on his current gubernatorial duties in Virginia
- Trump has not publicly nominated or indicated plans to appoint Youngkin to a cabinet or administration role
- Youngkin's political positioning has occasionally diverged from Trump on key issues, suggesting potential structural misalignment
- Similar appointment probabilities for DeSantis (10%) and Ken Paxton (6%) suggest the baseline rate for governors/officials joining the administration is low
- Trading volume on this contract ($1,133 in 24 hours) is substantially lower than contracts on Trump's reelection or his son's nomination, indicating limited market conviction

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/jointrumpadmin
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=jointrumpadmin
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.