# Jordan vs. Argentina

> Argentina leads at 73%, runner-up 21% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/jordan-vs-argentina
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:40.434Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-28

## Headline

- Leader: Argentina at 73%
- Runner-up: Draw (Jordan vs. Argentina) at 21%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 73¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/jordan-vs-argentina-argentina-polymarket-0xb465c0d920be7fa9413909befc3989247de10a1d4feca2621bb36f9a62191a12 |
| Draw (Jordan vs. Argentina) | 21¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/jordan-vs-argentina-draw-jordan-vs-argentina-polymarket-0x7815af57ea657fd0442932a788988b7f6c219a46903e4bce678981b801daf8a4 |
| Jordan | 14¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/jordan-vs-argentina-jordan-polymarket-0x26b822b926feab4068f42bf2d0750fb8a65e09462c8edf1159275c2a116081ea |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Argentina | Draw (Jordan vs. Argentina) | Jordan |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | — | 26 | 23 |
| 2026-05-01 | 75 | 22 | 20 |
| 2026-05-02 | 75 | 21 | 21 |
| 2026-05-03 | 75 | 21 | 21 |
| 2026-05-06 | 74 | 23 | 26 |
| 2026-05-07 | 74 | 23 | 26 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 24 | 18 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Jordan −8pp 26→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Jordan +5pp 21→26¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The market is pricing Argentina as a 76% favorite to win this matchup against Jordan. This probability reflects Argentina's established strength in football—they are the reigning Copa América champions with one of the highest-ranked squads globally—compared to Jordan's lower international ranking and less developed competitive history. The primary factors supporting Argentina's odds are their recent tournament success and consistent performance against lower-ranked opponents. Conversely, any upset would require Jordan to execute a tactical upset or capitalize on Argentina defensive lapses. The fixture result will be determined by the match itself; key variables include team form at the time of play, injury status of key players, and home-field advantage. The probability could shift materially based on team news released closer to kickoff, recent head-to-head records if available, and any unexpected roster changes.

### Key factors

- Argentina ranks significantly higher in FIFA world rankings than Jordan, a persistent competitive gap that historically correlates with match outcomes
- Argentina won Copa América 2024 and maintains strong recent tournament form, while Jordan's international tournament experience is substantially more limited
- The 76% probability reflects a decisive favorite, not a close matchup—roughly 3:1 implied odds rather than a competitive contest
- Injury status and squad availability for both teams in the days leading up to the fixture could materially alter expected performance levels
- Home-field advantage, if applicable, and recent bilateral head-to-head results would provide concrete evidence supporting or challenging the current pricing

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/jordan-vs-argentina
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=jordan-vs-argentina

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.