# Will Japan consumer confidence for April 2026 be above 31.0

> Above 28.5 leads at 94%, runner-up 94% across 15 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/jpconconf
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:49.753Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above 28.5 at 94%
- Runner-up: Above 29.0 at 94%
- Outcomes: 15 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $42

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 28.5 | 94¢ | +90pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-consumer-confidence-for-june-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxjpconconf-26jul01-t28.5 |
| Above 29.0 | 94¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-consumer-confidence-for-june-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxjpconconf-26jul01-t29.0 |
| Above 29.5 | 93¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-consumer-confidence-for-june-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxjpconconf-26jul01-t29.5 |
| Above 30.0 | 93¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-consumer-confidence-for-june-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxjpconconf-26jul01-t30.0 |
| Above 30.5 | 92¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-consumer-confidence-for-june-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxjpconconf-26jul01-t30.5 |
| Above 31.0 | 91¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-consumer-confidence-for-june-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxjpconconf-26jul01-t31.0 |
| Above 32.0 | 91¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-consumer-confidence-for-june-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxjpconconf-26jul01-t32.0 |
| Above 31.5 | 90¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-consumer-confidence-for-june-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxjpconconf-26jul01-t31.5 |
| Above 32.5 | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-consumer-confidence-for-june-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxjpconconf-26jul01-t32.5 |
| Above 33.0 | 75¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-consumer-confidence-for-june-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxjpconconf-26jul01-t33.0 |
| Above 33.5 | 65¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-consumer-confidence-for-june-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxjpconconf-26jul01-t33.5 |
| Above 34.0 | 55¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-consumer-confidence-for-june-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxjpconconf-26jul01-t34.0 |
| Above 34.5 | 47¢ | +1pp | $42 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-consumer-confidence-for-june-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxjpconconf-26jul01-t34.5 |
| Above 35.0 | 29¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-consumer-confidence-for-june-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxjpconconf-26jul01-t35.0 |
| Above 35.5 | 12¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-consumer-confidence-for-june-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxjpconconf-26jul01-t35.5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 28.5 | Above 29.0 | Above 29.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 42 | 37 | 21 |
| 2026-06-09 | 94 | 93 | 92 |
| 2026-06-11 | — | 94 | 93 |
| 2026-06-18 | — | 94 | 93 |
| 2026-06-26 | — | 94 | 93 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Above 34.5 +5pp 47→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Above 34.5 −4pp 52→48¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents a market prediction that Japan's consumer confidence index for June 2026 will exceed 30.5 points, currently priced at 84% likelihood. Japan's consumer confidence is a backward-looking indicator of household sentiment on employment, income, and spending intentions; it typically ranges between 25 and 35 points and influences consumer spending patterns that drive roughly 60% of GDP. The current high probability reflects recent trend data and seasonal patterns, though the index remains sensitive to external shocks including yen volatility, wage growth trajectory, and regional economic disruptions. Resolution depends on the official Cabinet Office survey data release, typically published mid-month following the survey period. The narrow contract spacing (28.5 to 35.5) suggests market uncertainty around the exact threshold rather than binary doubt about overall direction.

### Key factors

- Japan's consumer confidence index releases monthly via Cabinet Office survey; June 2026 data will be published in mid-July, providing definitive outcome
- Recent historical readings have clustered in the 28–32 range; achieving above 30.5 requires sustained positive household sentiment on employment and income prospects
- The 84% probability implies roughly one-in-six chance of reading at or below 30.5, reflecting tail risk from yen depreciation, wage stagnation, or external economic shocks
- Seasonal patterns show Q2 consumer confidence typically softer than Q1 in Japan due to post-tax-season spending adjustments
- Wage growth announcements and unemployment data released in preceding months will likely correlate with final June confidence outcome

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/jpconconf
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=jpconconf

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.