# Will Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 1.4%

> Closed. Final outcome: Above 1.3%. Last odds frozen 2 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/jpcpiyoy
Updated: 2026-05-22T19:20:39.252Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: resolved
Closes: 2026-05-21

## Headline

- Leader: Above 1.1% at 86%
- Runner-up: Above 1.6% at 79%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $331
- Resolved: Above 1.3%

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.1% | 86¢ | +43pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxjpcpiyoy-26may21-t1.1 |
| Above 1.6% | 79¢ | +47pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxjpcpiyoy-26may21-t1.6 |
| Above 1.9% | 50¢ | −3pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxjpcpiyoy-26may21-t1.9 |
| Above 2.1% | 34¢ | +21pp | $32 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxjpcpiyoy-26may21-t2.1 |
| Above 2.5% | 26¢ | +5pp | $242 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxjpcpiyoy-26may21-t2.5 |
| Above 1.2% | 25¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxjpcpiyoy-26may21-t1.2 |
| Above 1.5% | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxjpcpiyoy-26may21-t1.5 |
| Above 1.3% | 6¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxjpcpiyoy-26may21-t1.3 |
| Above 1.4% | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxjpcpiyoy-26may21-t1.4 |
| Above 1.7% | 3¢ | +37pp | $36 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxjpcpiyoy-26may21-t1.7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 1.1% | Above 1.6% | Above 1.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 24 | 12 | 12 |
| 2026-05-15 | 50 | 45 | 29 |
| 2026-05-16 | 90 | 74 | 30 |
| 2026-05-17 | 43 | 27 | 23 |
| 2026-05-18 | — | — | 9 |
| 2026-05-21 | 86 | 53 | 14 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-21 · Above 1.6% +47pp 6→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-21 · Above 1.1% +43pp 43→86¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-21 · Above 1.7% +37pp 5→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-19 · Above 1.2% −27pp 34→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-19 · Above 1.7% −25pp 29→4¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/jpcpiyoy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=jpcpiyoy
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

## License

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