# Will Doug Petno succeed Jamie Dimon as CEO of JPMorgan

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 25% across 4 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/jpmceonew
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.064Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2030-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 25% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Piepszak | 7¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jennifer-piepszak-succeed-jamie-dimon-as-ceo-kalshi-kxjpmceonew-30-jp |
| Marianne Lake | 48¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-marianne-lake-succeed-jamie-dimon-as-ceo-of-j-kalshi-kxjpmceonew-30-ml |
| Doug Petno | 21¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-doug-petno-succeed-jamie-dimon-as-ceo-of-jpmo-kalshi-kxjpmceonew-30-dp |
| Troy Rohrbaugh | 22¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-troy-rohrbaugh-succeed-jamie-dimon-as-ceo-of-kalshi-kxjpmceonew-30-tr |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | 24 |
| 2026-04-24 | 29 |
| 2026-05-02 | 23 |
| 2026-05-06 | 7 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 25% probability reflects the market's assessment that Doug Petno has roughly a one-in-four chance of becoming JPMorgan's next CEO following Jamie Dimon's eventual departure. Dimon, who is 60 years old, has not announced a retirement timeline, making the succession question inherently speculative. The probability is influenced by Petno's current position within the bank's leadership hierarchy, his demonstrated capabilities, and competition from other potential internal or external candidates. Key factors that could shift this estimate include announcements about Dimon's succession plans, Petno's performance in high-visibility roles, changes in regulatory environment affecting CEO selection criteria, and whether JPMorgan signals a preference for internal versus external candidates. Without a clear timeline or formal announcement from JPMorgan's board, the market assigns meaningful probability to multiple potential outcomes.

### Key factors

- Dimon's age (60) and lack of publicly stated retirement date create uncertainty about succession timing and urgency
- Petno's current role and track record in JPMorgan's leadership pipeline relative to other identified candidates
- Board composition and historical CEO selection patterns at JPMorgan (internal promotion vs. external hire)
- Regulatory and shareholder expectations regarding banking CEO transitions and qualifications
- No official succession plan announcement as of the reference date, leaving substantial ambiguity

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/jpmceonew
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=jpmceonew

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