# Will Japan balance of trade for March 2026 be above 1200B JPY

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 44% across 20 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/jptradebal
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:56.767Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 44% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 47% / Polymarket 16% — 31pp spread
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| European Union | 9¢ | −9pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-wi-polymarket-0xdb3df04fc73bd716ab5619aebaaaa42a85c10b0faed27b654b5e5ec5714f500f |
| Above 130.0B USD | 7¢ | −4pp | $413 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t130.0 |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | 33¢ | −1pp | $257 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-trump-announce-a-new-trade-deal-before-j-kalshi-kxnewdeal-jun01 |
| Above 40.0B USD | 89¢ | +3pp | $223 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t40.0 |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 22¢ | +2pp | $201 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-announce-a-trade-deal-with-cuba-before-kalshi-kxtradedealcuba-27-b260801 |
| Japan | 46¢ | +4pp | $140 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-japan-before-jan-1-2027-ja-kalshi-kxtrumpcountries-27jan01-jap |
| Japan | 7¢ | −1pp | $117 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-qualify-for-fifa-world-cup-semifinals-j-kalshi-kxwcround-26semi-jpn |
| Above 30.0B USD | 92¢ | −1pp | $69 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t30.0 |
| Above 60.0B USD | 68¢ | +5pp | $30 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t60.0 |
| Above 90.0B USD | 36¢ | — | $29 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t90.0 |
| Japan | 22¢ | −1pp | $27 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-wi-polymarket-0xfe61b06cd6643f489a4781a327cdf06bfd639e95151d938c801758a4bea41b73 |
| Before 2029 | 36¢ | +1pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-make-a-new-free-trade-agreement-with-ch-kalshi-kxftaprc-29 |
| Above 70.0B USD | 51¢ | +2pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t70.0 |
| Above 80.0B USD | 43¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t80.0 |
| Above 20.0B USD | 97¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t20.0 |
| Above 10.0B USD | 97¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t10.0 |
| Above 110.0B USD | 16¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t110.0 |
| Above 120.0B USD | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t120.0 |
| Above 100.0B USD | 22¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t100.0 |
| Above 50.0B USD | 80¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t50.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 26 |
| 2026-04-19 | 36 |
| 2026-04-26 | 35 |
| 2026-05-03 | 42 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-27 · Before Aug 1, 2026 −19pp 44→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · European Union −9pp 13→4¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · Japan −9pp 45→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Before Aug 1, 2026 −8pp 25→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · European Union +5pp 10→15¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/jptradebal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=jptradebal

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.