# Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 7 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/justicedemwin
Updated: 2026-09-18T07:20:51.673Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 16% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 7 | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-count-of-candidates-endorsed-by-jus-kalshi-kxjusticedemwin-26nov03-a7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | 16 |
| 2026-09-11 | 16 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market measures whether Justice Democrats-endorsed candidates will win more than 3 federal primary elections in contests held on or after June 25, 2026. Currently priced at 61%, the probability reflects moderate confidence in multiple primary victories. The outcomes become increasingly unlikely at higher thresholds: above 4 at 32%, above 6 at 17%, and above 7 at just 7%. Justice Democrats' track record in recent cycles, candidate quality in targeted races, and turnout patterns in late-June primaries will determine success rates. The resolution depends entirely on primary results across multiple states through the election calendar's completion, with outcomes becoming clearer as specific primary dates arrive and results are reported.

### Key factors

- Justice Democrats' historical primary win rate and endorsement hit rate in 2024 and prior cycles establishes a baseline expectation for 2026 performance
- Number of viable Justice Democrats-endorsed candidates actually competing in primaries scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 directly constrains the maximum possible wins
- Turnout levels and demographic composition in late-June primaries differ from earlier contests, potentially favoring or hindering progressive candidates
- Margin pricing (61% for >3, 32% for >4, 17% for >6, 7% for >7) suggests most contract holders expect 4-5 total wins rather than substantially higher numbers
- Concentration of remaining June primaries in specific states or district types will determine whether endorsed candidates face favorable or unfavorable matchups

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/justicedemwin
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=justicedemwin
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.