# Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Ōita Trinita (-1.5)

> O/U 1.5 leads at 60%, runner-up 52% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ita-trinita
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:35:29.389Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 60%
- Runner-up: O/U 2.5 at 52%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 60¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xc0ca93277e47ebfeac4868ad303dfb8d5487eab193fc355d227ffd9279f526cd |
| O/U 2.5 | 52¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x439e354b22d6e164f4d31f50551836df502e9225f10f7da1eb62ecd6538682f7 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-bo-polymarket-0xe0cdd90db277e87907e88ff3672e492d88afe0c187c708157a5d9fb951da7a6d |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xc65258b729eb812ed035c1f0a9f1f8908d226d1e1f9deb24b21d1857e9536bb8 |
| Ōita Trinita (-2.5) | 35¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-it-polymarket-0x181e3424ee0ee74f7515f00ded017f0f7b354f423316a80b2d2a69c69ab5d370 |
| Ōita Trinita (-1.5) | 33¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-it-polymarket-0x88fc7b7ae3b2ecf42ec2828e86c4701f3039aaadb163445ff377480f84be35d4 |
| Kagoshima United FC (-2.5) | 33¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ka-polymarket-0xf7b2d59df5ec45e91e68eff046f5394e0a02d136238fb7ff8cf8b358cd3742fa |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x58a7057d70e71e5d33a2d634f3f5da7546509c59bf8117285f1e3f6ee2f5db3a |
| Kagoshima United FC (-1.5) | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ka-polymarket-0x9d9d399d5805b6d04d783b7e23110f9c3a564d25f53a1d111bb05c7ca2ee1252 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | O/U 2.5 | Both Teams to Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | — | 53 | 49 |
| 2026-05-03 | 57 | — | 51 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Ōita Trinita (-1.5) +5pp 33→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Kagoshima United FC (-2.5) +5pp 32→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Ōita Trinita (-2.5) +3pp 35→38¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a 34% probability that Ōita Trinita will win by more than 1.5 goals against Kagoshima United FC. The relatively low probability suggests bettors view Kagoshima as the more likely outcome or expect a closer contest. The probability level is driven by each team's recent form, goal-scoring records, and defensive consistency in their respective leagues. The market will resolve when this match is played, making the actual result the single definitive catalyst for settlement. Until kickoff, the probability may shift based on team news, lineup changes, or injury announcements that affect expected goal-scoring capacity.

### Key factors

- Ōita Trinita's recent goal differential and win rate versus similarly-ranked opponents in the J-League
- Kagoshima United FC's defensive record and conceded-goals average over their last 5-10 matches
- Head-to-head historical performance between these two teams, if applicable
- Current league standings and momentum—whether either team is in an upward or downward trend
- Confirmed player availability: injuries to key forwards (Ōita) or defenders (Kagoshima) that would materially affect expected goals

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ita-trinita
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ita-trinita

## License

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