# Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:50:47.727Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 67%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 50%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $73

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 67¢ | −17pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xc0ca93277e47ebfeac4868ad303dfb8d5487eab193fc355d227ffd9279f526cd |
| Both Teams to Score | 50¢ | −19pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-bo-polymarket-0xe0cdd90db277e87907e88ff3672e492d88afe0c187c708157a5d9fb951da7a6d |
| O/U 2.5 | 40¢ | −34pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x439e354b22d6e164f4d31f50551836df502e9225f10f7da1eb62ecd6538682f7 |
| Kagoshima United FC (-1.5) | 25¢ | −18pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ka-polymarket-0x9d9d399d5805b6d04d783b7e23110f9c3a564d25f53a1d111bb05c7ca2ee1252 |
| O/U 3.5 | 19¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xc65258b729eb812ed035c1f0a9f1f8908d226d1e1f9deb24b21d1857e9536bb8 |
| Kagoshima United FC (-2.5) | 9¢ | −32pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ka-polymarket-0xf7b2d59df5ec45e91e68eff046f5394e0a02d136238fb7ff8cf8b358cd3742fa |
| O/U 4.5 | 8¢ | −21pp | $43 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x58a7057d70e71e5d33a2d634f3f5da7546509c59bf8117285f1e3f6ee2f5db3a |
| Ōita Trinita (-1.5) | 7¢ | −29pp | $7 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-it-polymarket-0x88fc7b7ae3b2ecf42ec2828e86c4701f3039aaadb163445ff377480f84be35d4 |
| Ōita Trinita (-2.5) | 4¢ | −27pp | $23 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-it-polymarket-0x181e3424ee0ee74f7515f00ded017f0f7b354f423316a80b2d2a69c69ab5d370 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | — | 49 | 53 |
| 2026-05-03 | 57 | 51 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 40 | 32 | 19 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · O/U 2.5 −34pp 53→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Kagoshima United FC (-2.5) −32pp 37→5¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Ōita Trinita (-1.5) −29pp 38→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Ōita Trinita (-2.5) −27pp 38→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 4.5 −21pp 34→13¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market prices Kagoshima United FC at a 51% implied probability of winning against Ōita Trinita in an upcoming J2 League matchup. The probability reflects modest confidence in a Kagoshima victory, with modest backing from traders on Polymarket despite near-zero volume in the most recent 24 hours. The outcome hinges on current team form, head-to-head records, injury status, and home-field advantage factors typical of professional soccer matches. Resolution will occur on the scheduled match date when the final result is determined. Recent contract activity shows minimal liquidity, suggesting limited trader conviction or lack of ongoing market engagement with this specific fixture.

### Key factors

- Current market price of 51% indicates a slightly favored outcome rather than near-parity; the runner-up sits 19 percentage points lower at 32%
- No volume recorded in the Kagoshima-Ōita contract over the past 24 hours, suggesting limited active trading and potential illiquidity that could affect price reliability
- The Ōita Trinita spread contract (-2.5) is priced at 34¢, providing a secondary data point on market perception of relative team strength
- J2 League scheduling and both teams' recent win-loss records, goal differential, and head-to-head history would typically drive directional shifts in match probabilities
- Match date and venue details would determine home-field effects and fatigue factors for either team ahead of kick-off

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets

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