# Kagoshima United FC vs. Sagan Tosu

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 42% across 20 contracts — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-sagan-tosu
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:36:00.169Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 42% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ōita Trinita | 36¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-ita-trinita-polymarket-0x8ff73c4b6ca82f1054bb138b2898844ffd8975bdd880f1390f5dac0d722e3d38 |
| Ōita Trinita (-2.5) | 35¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-it-polymarket-0x181e3424ee0ee74f7515f00ded017f0f7b354f423316a80b2d2a69c69ab5d370 |
| Kagoshima United FC (-1.5) | 33¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ka-polymarket-0x9d9d399d5805b6d04d783b7e23110f9c3a564d25f53a1d111bb05c7ca2ee1252 |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x57869b63e71fd2eaa7d4772e0867a99e3109e15620fde4daf168820a4f8a5019 |
| Gainare Tottori | 37¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-gainare-tottori-polymarket-0x2e8cb983805f1ebb56d435554c8a2d299d1afcbcabdfcb96fd445e1de2f9fdb0 |
| Draw (Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita) | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-draw-kagoshima-polymarket-0xf07ff2d11763d1fadfea139e1470687ff13bd1e03d9f30fe65ff4009230b3a60 |
| O/U 2.5 | 52¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x439e354b22d6e164f4d31f50551836df502e9225f10f7da1eb62ecd6538682f7 |
| Ōita Trinita (-1.5) | 33¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-it-polymarket-0x88fc7b7ae3b2ecf42ec2828e86c4701f3039aaadb163445ff377480f84be35d4 |
| O/U 2.5 | 54¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x2d68ef538060e39f821c7b567407e6bd8d67066d9685038cc748cb2c8fd45be9 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-bo-polymarket-0xe0cdd90db277e87907e88ff3672e492d88afe0c187c708157a5d9fb951da7a6d |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x58a7057d70e71e5d33a2d634f3f5da7546509c59bf8117285f1e3f6ee2f5db3a |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xb085f45a735169eb9ef7d0bd0108825a4816d73a567acf02e04169d03530d24e |
| Gainare Tottori (-1.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-gainare-polymarket-0xe81828ca36aab01b297bf67fd646d0c2907d7df576ef42e4f8fbba3e8d2da3a4 |
| Kagoshima United FC | 51¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-kagoshima-unite-polymarket-0x915eb3ae12983ea65de0a0af4e6c04fff81685b5496e8409fc6ea41b8742ea84 |
| Sagan Tosu (-1.5) | 33¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-sagan-t-polymarket-0xde051c4f9072d30ef1a54c22875e34aee124590306fc49e7b41e01fc297ef56b |
| Sagan Tosu (-2.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-sagan-t-polymarket-0x5900f7e742db7839d3896d8c530bc6a6c5022b3f22a6119cb5ca7546291bc899 |
| O/U 1.5 | 60¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xc0ca93277e47ebfeac4868ad303dfb8d5487eab193fc355d227ffd9279f526cd |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xc65258b729eb812ed035c1f0a9f1f8908d226d1e1f9deb24b21d1857e9536bb8 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-both-te-polymarket-0xc62c8052b88eabaf7fbba8ed2266f84cd1e1cffbed7ad97d4003e6dc8d513ca6 |
| Draw (Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori) | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-draw-sagan-tosu-vs-g-polymarket-0x8bfb29652d58dcbbe33735f50ac6022d2825b58b3208952d56868a2a59de1d08 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 40 |
| 2026-05-02 | 42 |
| 2026-05-03 | 43 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Gainare Tottori −8pp 40→32¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Ōita Trinita (-1.5) +5pp 33→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Gainare Tottori (-1.5) +4pp 33→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Sagan Tosu (-2.5) +4pp 32→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Ōita Trinita (-2.5) +3pp 35→38¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-sagan-tosu
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kagoshima-united-fc-vs-sagan-tosu

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.