# Kansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner

> Christy Davis leads at 12%, runner-up 7% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 11 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kansas-democratic-senate-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:05:52.491Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-04

## Headline

- Leader: Christy Davis at 12%
- Runner-up: Sharice Davids at 7%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $65

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christy Davis | 12¢ | +9pp | $26 | polymarket | /markets/kansas-democratic-senate-primary-winner-christy-da-polymarket-0x23138fc034c49853887431d6009400c26dbfb09525e0edc80878c218d19e28e8 |
| Sharice Davids | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kansas-democratic-senate-primary-winner-sharice-da-polymarket-0xde07228f2e6db44b37afae1059d2dd13aca52c0803bcc2b67d874a5b39d85ee1 |
| Patrick Schmidt | 6¢ | +8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kansas-democratic-senate-primary-winner-patrick-sc-polymarket-0xedd9faaa96ae2f00e92d3d59e19b75ccfbc388b5873ea419bf579dcc870d5fb2 |
| Sandy Spidel Neumann | 4¢ | +1pp | $39 | polymarket | /markets/kansas-democratic-senate-primary-winner-sandy-spid-polymarket-0x7746b132411eaddfa8459cdd260d3fcf486507536421ea2a50fff7df17f8db24 |
| Michael Soetaert | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kansas-democratic-senate-primary-winner-michael-so-polymarket-0x055f6d2291df83e604c5f21fc3baa61272b8a1b13193a590b6fc3c4114238988 |
| Anne Parelkar | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kansas-democratic-senate-primary-winner-anne-parel-polymarket-0x571b1bdc7322dcc3e6be4347fa7efbea43e1487bb4888830b84559cb3355fe01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Christy Davis | Sharice Davids | Patrick Schmidt |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 24 | 33 | 6 |
| 2026-04-19 | 29 | 23 | 12 |
| 2026-04-26 | 21 | 15 | 15 |
| 2026-05-03 | 23 | 12 | 25 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-30 · Anne Parelkar −28pp 31→3¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Anne Parelkar +26pp 5→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Patrick Schmidt +26pp 10→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Michael Soetaert +23pp 5→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · Michael Soetaert −19pp 28→9¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 13% probability represents the market-implied chance that a specific candidate wins the Kansas Democratic Senate primary. The lean probability reflects a competitive field where multiple candidates remain viable, with no frontrunner commanding consensus. The current price is driven by candidate fundraising totals, polling data within the state, and endorsements from established Democratic figures. The primary election date will definitively resolve this contract, eliminating uncertainty about the actual winner. Market participants are weighing factors like name recognition among Kansas Democrats, campaign organization strength, and messaging alignment with the party base in a state where Democrats face structural headwinds in the general election.

### Key factors

- Candidate fundraising disclosures and cash-on-hand compared to rivals
- Recent public polling of likely Kansas Democratic primary voters
- Endorsements from sitting Kansas Democratic officials and national party figures
- Voter registration trends and turnout expectations among Democratic primary electorate
- Campaign organization indicators, including field staff presence and voter contact operations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kansas-democratic-senate-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kansas-democratic-senate-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.