# Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kanye-west-visit-israel-june-30
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.393Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? | 5¢ | −3pp | $5K | polymarket | /markets/will-kanye-west-visit-israel-by-june-30-polymarket-0xcb8a519f4d8c10c3e60c5c604cac30f38341e4b35f5bcce8356c0ea4698f8952 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 26 |
| 2026-05-02 | 17 |
| 2026-05-03 | 16 |
| 2026-05-06 | 11 |
| 2026-05-07 | 8 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? −9pp 26→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? −5pp 16→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? −3pp 11→8¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract asks whether Kanye West will visit Israel between now and June 30, 2026—a timeframe of roughly four weeks. The 18% probability reflects a low likelihood of such a visit occurring in this narrow window. The current level is driven primarily by the lack of announced travel plans and West's recent focus on other pursuits, balanced against the possibility of unexpected or spontaneous travel. A higher probability on the longer-term Kalshi contract (62% by January 1, 2027) suggests markets view an Israel visit as more plausible over an eight-month period than within the next month. The main resolution catalyst will be either an official announcement of travel plans, social media activity suggesting imminent travel, or the passage of the June 30 deadline itself.

### Key factors

- No publicly announced Israel travel plans as of May 2026
- The 44-point probability gap between the June 30 deadline (18%) and the January 1, 2027 deadline (62%) suggests markets expect any potential visit to occur after summer
- West's recent activity and touring schedule would need to include or accommodate an Israel stop
- Any visa, security, or logistical barriers that might prevent travel within the compressed four-week timeframe
- Social media activity or statements from West regarding Middle East visits or geopolitical engagement

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kanye-west-visit-israel-june-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kanye-west-visit-israel-june-30

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