# Kash Patel out by...

> December 31 leads at 65%, runner-up 32% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kash-patel-out
Updated: 2026-05-03T21:06:00.467Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: December 31 at 65%
- Runner-up: June 30 at 32%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $25K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 65¢ | −1pp | $5K | polymarket | /markets/kash-patel-out-by-december-31-polymarket-0x4dc5c13eb9646b10da7d5f079f77ef2480ec5466861ce1cfbc910fabed3d7d0d |
| June 30 | 32¢ | −1pp | $11K | polymarket | /markets/kash-patel-out-by-june-30-polymarket-0x79859c9e6645873e1568344b0b8ee54cc9eb02b90701cc5ba19c9a547ff313ce |
| May 31 | 17¢ | −2pp | $9K | polymarket | /markets/kash-patel-out-by-may-31-polymarket-0xaf89088494ed29e5694bdf8cb6d945340234729e1e4aba3ffba6fd1df4097d50 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | December 31 | June 30 | May 31 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 66 | 41 | — |
| 2026-04-19 | 77 | 65 | — |
| 2026-04-26 | 79 | 64 | — |
| 2026-04-27 | 78 | 62 | 42 |
| 2026-05-03 | 66 | 40 | 13 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · May 31 −16pp 41→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · June 30 −15pp 59→44¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · December 31 −9pp 78→69¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · May 31 −6pp 21→15¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · June 30 −5pp 44→39¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 38% probability reflects market expectation that Kash Patel will leave his position as FBI Director before a specified date (likely early June 2026). The market is pricing in meaningful but minority-level risk, suggesting traders see valid reasons for departure—whether through resignation, removal, or transition—but assess continuation as more likely. Key drivers include political developments affecting his tenure, personnel changes within the administration, and the inherent turnover rate for FBI leadership. The most concrete upcoming resolution point appears to be early June 2026, based on active contract pricing. Polymarket contracts show slightly higher probability (39%) than Kalshi (37%), a modest 2-point divergence suggesting reasonable consensus rather than sharp disagreement across venues.

### Key factors

- Kash Patel's current tenure stability and any public statements about his plans from him or administration officials
- Broader political circumstances that might necessitate or prompt FBI Director changes, including congressional oversight activities or investigations
- Historical turnover rate and average tenure length for FBI Directors in similar political environments
- Volume concentration: the most-traded Kalshi contract (17¢) focuses on before June 1, providing a specific resolution mechanism
- Cross-venue probability spread of only 2 percentage points indicates limited arbitrage opportunity and relatively stable market consensus

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kash-patel-out
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kash-patel-out

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.