# Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock

> Kashima Antlers leads at 57%, runner-up 25% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:50:24.729Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: Kashima Antlers at 57%
- Runner-up: Draw (Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock) at 25%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima Antlers | 57¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock-kashima-antl-polymarket-0xda16f5f99ab000e90be082a66bf91d4760d73eea2dac3b46cced139158573b65 |
| Draw (Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock) | 25¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock-draw-kashima-polymarket-0x701ae45ef836a011a58e97f75432565c982eabf04e31b4aaa37c9e77492adfa5 |
| FC Mito Holly Hock | 17¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock-fc-mito-holl-polymarket-0x7c2edc081c32d05d1211b6e4733f57cf9f4993b2aff68bc1771396191ccb941e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Kashima Antlers | Draw (Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock) | FC Mito Holly Hock |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 45 | 33 | 30 |
| 2026-05-02 | 44 | 32 | 32 |
| 2026-05-03 | 44 | 32 | 30 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This represents the leading market estimate that Kashima Antlers will win their upcoming match against FC Mito Holly Hock at 44%, with FC Mito Holly Hock's probability at 34% (and a draw implied at roughly 22%). The probability reflects Kashima Antlers' stronger historical standing in J-League Division 2, though the relatively modest lead suggests meaningful uncertainty about the outcome. Resolution depends entirely on the match result, which will occur on a scheduled date in the J-League calendar. Key factors traders are weighing include current league standings and recent form of both clubs, head-to-head historical records, injury status and team roster composition, home-field advantage if applicable, and recent scoring patterns evident in the related over/under contracts (47¢ on O/U 2.5 suggests moderate scoring expectations). The secondary contracts show low volume and tight spreads, indicating limited recent trading activity around this fixture.

### Key factors

- Kashima Antlers hold a higher implied win probability (44%) compared to FC Mito Holly Hock (34%), consistent with their stronger J-League Division 2 historical position
- Related over/under markets price O/U 2.5 at 47¢, suggesting moderate goal expectations that would factor into match dynamics and scoring risk
- Both Teams to Score market at 49¢ indicates roughly even odds of both clubs scoring, relevant to match structure and defensive vulnerability
- FC Mito Holly Hock spread contracts (−1.5 and −2.5) trade at 33¢ and 34¢ respectively, showing minimal trader interest in betting on significant Mito victory margins
- Near-zero 24-hour volume across all related contracts indicates sparse recent market activity, reducing confidence in probability estimates

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock

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