# Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Tōkyō

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 19 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kashiwa-reysol-vs-fc-tky
Updated: 2026-05-05T08:05:35.430Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $544

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tōkyō | 66¢ | +18pp | $158 | polymarket | /markets/fc-tky-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba-fc-tky-polymarket-0xd5f09f6d966dd3c8727eb13c91200ba46ed87cbb31a67eb0a7d56a806cc73626 |
| Draw (Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds) | 28¢ | +1pp | $112 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-draw-kashiwa-polymarket-0xbb1d85c0653835874de6ae3e0cd7911ea44b6062031b0280882f1f94a820f498 |
| Draw (Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy) | 28¢ | −2pp | $111 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-draw-kawasaki-front-polymarket-0xae4b3d92dfbf729d1d1c4e1417dcc15eba5b50e062470235a681be0ac0768744 |
| Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5) | 5¢ | −4pp | $56 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0xc60a6d5f37835d039139ee7a805003c7133a8aeb3a9aeb4c1c0175e32981d8a2 |
| O/U 2.5 | 48¢ | −2pp | $52 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0x137a07a40c862c48fa20e4bf0903615799188d89173bc6a02ef8f36908f75c60 |
| Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5) | 4¢ | −6pp | $28 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-tky-ve-polymarket-0xe158bdcc299fae5f1b1c38a92c8eabb46f489427326e54d21b59bd361a840a3d |
| O/U 4.5 | 13¢ | — | $25 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0x8c771d9b5ed14085fc1ecfaa14fc44e10b34e74333cd7ee161efeb124e340d08 |
| Kashiwa Reysol | 45¢ | +1pp | $2 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-kashiwa-reyso-polymarket-0x3481b3be832eae49ff416e4730a50ec37ee10928a54e55e58a4f73d080267cd2 |
| Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) | 7¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-tky-ve-polymarket-0x2ae2ebd1fd8f36dee4140d1e5d50addade8319b01b9486d126f98e2e54d468c8 |
| O/U 1.5 | 75¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0xde55263f4843ff39efeba08884e6e92b2af80fddf4ce93586dc5b12736b29dbc |
| Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5) | 9¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0xadcf744a9640a6e377fe9053eb64b43a37dba200eb2040bcd1e199d9e34df821 |
| Both Teams to Score | 54¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0x1083aaebb1ee5fc7669e00ffbd7f30b223c37ffbf72564e37c39f9b5fd9404fd |
| Urawa Red Diamonds | 28¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-urawa-red-dia-polymarket-0xa86687cc94ddd23f585f0c182515c5f8d36ad40a4991b55a149f4b68c4e7d447 |
| Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5) | 21¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0x13fca10ff23581e6dd606f11f66f4c391c6466503af462fce73756afe0c09be2 |
| O/U 3.5 | 27¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0x1ae4fa2b0e1cebe32000a741ec07dc113ec3cbc71d668d9f2ebf47f090557485 |
| Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5) | 9¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0xf874fea23e2749a660cf3f2d2f1b359d0e892dad6460eba65a6fb5b54c532d7f |
| FC Tōkyō (-1.5) | 39¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-tky-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba-more-markets-f-polymarket-0x3724ce935c950bdee92ab9a7bccf463e09268169716ba78066ecb90f53e98650 |
| Both Teams to Score | 47¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-tky-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba-more-markets-b-polymarket-0x47d52bb27d62033542236cf8ed946ec29d0cdd9661b710c76d54838848879c5a |
| Tōkyō Verdy | 26¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-tky-verdy-polymarket-0x3d1c1d96948fe74dd5074638764492911ae0a05448b827f9f17d12d6a4cbae22 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 36 |
| 2026-05-02 | 36 |
| 2026-05-03 | 36 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · FC Tōkyō +18pp 48→66¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5) −8pp 37→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · FC Tōkyō +7pp 41→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5) −6pp 34→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5) −4pp 28→24¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kashiwa-reysol-vs-fc-tky
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kashiwa-reysol-vs-fc-tky

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.