# Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds

> Kashiwa Reysol leads at 47%, runner-up 28% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:50:26.792Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: Kashiwa Reysol at 47%
- Runner-up: Draw (Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds) at 28%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashiwa Reysol | 47¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-kashiwa-reyso-polymarket-0x3481b3be832eae49ff416e4730a50ec37ee10928a54e55e58a4f73d080267cd2 |
| Draw (Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds) | 28¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-draw-kashiwa-polymarket-0xbb1d85c0653835874de6ae3e0cd7911ea44b6062031b0280882f1f94a820f498 |
| Urawa Red Diamonds | 27¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-urawa-red-dia-polymarket-0xa86687cc94ddd23f585f0c182515c5f8d36ad40a4991b55a149f4b68c4e7d447 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Kashiwa Reysol | Draw (Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds) | Urawa Red Diamonds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 42 | 32 | 34 |
| 2026-05-02 | 44 | 32 | 34 |
| 2026-05-03 | 45 | 33 | 32 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 44% probability indicates the prediction market currently favors Urawa Red Diamonds to win over Kashiwa Reysol, though the market remains relatively unsettled with meaningful probability mass on other outcomes. The leading probability reflects recent form, squad composition, and home-field considerations for a J-League match. The main drivers of this level are comparative recent performance metrics and injury status of key players on both sides; movements would likely follow team news or updated lineups closer to kickoff. The match itself serves as the primary resolution event—the scheduled fixture will definitively settle the outcome, eliminating all uncertainty around this specific three-way bet. Market pricing can shift based on late-breaking roster changes, weather conditions, or updated betting syndicate intelligence from other venues in the hours before the final whistle.

### Key factors

- Recent league standing and goal differential for both Kashiwa Reysol and Urawa Red Diamonds in the current J-League season
- Injury or suspension status of key attacking or defensive players for either team announced before match day
- Head-to-head historical record and results from the most recent fixtures between these two clubs
- Home venue advantage factors (pitch conditions, crowd dynamics, travel distance if applicable)
- Market volume concentration on Polymarket—the $0 24h volume on the featured contract indicates minimal recent activity, suggesting the 44% may reflect stale or thin pricing

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds

## License

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