# Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Dec 1, 2026

> Before Dec 1, 2026 leads at 25%, runner-up 18% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kashout-26jul
Updated: 2026-07-28T19:20:51.438Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Dec 1, 2026 at 25%
- Runner-up: Before Nov 1, 2026 at 18%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 25¢ | −6pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-kash-patel-be-out-as-fbi-director-before-dec-kalshi-kxkashout-26jul-26dec01 |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 18¢ | ±0 | $366 | kalshi | /markets/will-kash-patel-be-out-as-fbi-director-before-nov-kalshi-kxkashout-26jul-26nov01 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 14¢ | ±0 | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-kash-patel-be-out-as-fbi-director-before-oct-kalshi-kxkashout-26jul-26oct01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Dec 1, 2026 | Before Nov 1, 2026 | Before Oct 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | 50 | 31 | 19 |
| 2026-07-14 | 49 | — | 19 |
| 2026-07-21 | 35 | 22 | 17 |
| 2026-07-28 | 23 | 18 | 14 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-22 · Before Dec 1, 2026 −6pp 35→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-28 · Before Dec 1, 2026 −6pp 29→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-21 · Before Nov 1, 2026 −5pp 27→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-21 · Before Dec 1, 2026 +3pp 32→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-21 · Before Oct 1, 2026 −3pp 20→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets estimate a 49% chance that Kash Patel exits his FBI Director role before December 1, 2026—roughly seven months from now. This probability reflects uncertainty about his tenure stability in the current political environment. The assessment hinges on factors including his relationship with the administration, congressional dynamics, and any potential investigations or controversies. The market shows lower probabilities for earlier exits (20% by October 1, 32% by November 1), suggesting traders expect either continued stability or departure closer to year-end if it occurs. Significant political shifts, personnel changes at the White House, or disclosed issues involving the FBI leadership could materially shift these odds in either direction. The differing probabilities across timeframes indicate markets are pricing in time as a stabilizing factor rather than expecting imminent departure.

### Key factors

- Patel's stated tenure expectations and any public signals about duration of service from him or the appointing administration
- Congressional or media scrutiny specifically targeting his leadership, decisions, or conduct at the FBI
- Changes in White House personnel or policy priorities that could affect FBI Director stability
- The relative scarcity of FBI Director departures under normal circumstances versus recent tenure volatility in that role
- Any scheduled Senate confirmations, oversight hearings, or inspector general reports that could affect his position before December 1

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kashout-26jul
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kashout-26jul

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.