# Will Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before Jul 1, 2026

> Before Dec 1, 2026 leads at 25%, runner-up 18% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 16 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kashout
Updated: 2026-07-28T19:20:51.465Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Dec 1, 2026 at 25%
- Runner-up: Before Nov 1, 2026 at 18%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 25¢ | −6pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-kash-patel-be-out-as-fbi-director-before-dec-kalshi-kxkashout-26jul-26dec01 |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 18¢ | ±0 | $366 | kalshi | /markets/will-kash-patel-be-out-as-fbi-director-before-nov-kalshi-kxkashout-26jul-26nov01 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 14¢ | ±0 | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-kash-patel-be-out-as-fbi-director-before-oct-kalshi-kxkashout-26jul-26oct01 |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 5¢ | −1pp | $474 | kalshi | /markets/will-kash-patel-be-out-as-fbi-director-before-sep-kalshi-kxkashout-26apr-26sep01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Dec 1, 2026 | Before Nov 1, 2026 | Before Oct 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | 50 | 31 | 19 |
| 2026-07-14 | 49 | — | 19 |
| 2026-07-21 | 35 | 22 | 17 |
| 2026-07-28 | 23 | 18 | 14 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-22 · Before Dec 1, 2026 −6pp 35→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-28 · Before Dec 1, 2026 −6pp 29→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-21 · Before Nov 1, 2026 −5pp 27→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-21 · Before Dec 1, 2026 +3pp 32→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-21 · Before Oct 1, 2026 −3pp 20→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 45% probability that Kash Patel will leave his position as FBI Director before August 1, 2026. The pricing reflects uncertainty about his tenure stability, with notably lower probabilities for near-term departures (17% by June 1, 37% by July 1) and higher probability for departure by end of 2026 (68%). The current level suggests mixed sentiment: markets see departure as plausible but not the base case. Key drivers include potential political developments, confirmation dynamics, or institutional pressures that could alter his position. The progression of contract prices reveals markets treat imminent departures as unlikely but increasing odds over a longer timeframe suggests meaningful conditional risks exist beyond the next two months.

### Key factors

- Patel's confirmation date and any Senate friction during or after confirmation hearings would directly affect tenure expectations
- Political or legal developments involving Patel personally could accelerate departure odds
- Institutional conflicts within the FBI or executive branch could trigger resignation or removal
- The contract-price gradient (17% by Jun 1 vs 68% by Dec 31) indicates markets see June-July departures as low-probability but attach rising risk to later periods
- Volume concentration in the Aug 1 contract ($11,165 24h) versus May 31 contract suggests traders are hedging against mid-summer uncertainty rather than immediate removal

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kashout
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kashout

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.