# Kataller Toyama vs. Albirex Niigata

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 38% across 20 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kataller-toyama-vs-albirex-niigata
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:35:17.347Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 38% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 4.5 | 28¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0xa9a0068043b8f70080dad1cbc72d232ee9b5278c21d12cbe3171107996419c94 |
| Kataller Toyama (-1.5) | 33¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0xa18b4aeaa1b53e7d32e9fb7c48098547da2808cc3e72e8a48824b4fd2cd09f97 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0x881f458b76b6d561d43503c7cd0869a8463961c1787a43e52fbd1a62614fdeb3 |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0xd108598c1ea2939d8259c617ee6673d2e2fed06854c85b27ae25acd6fedf62db |
| Kamatamare Sanuki (-1.5) | 33¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0x7056f531d96671721afb19c5a038b9d973f574c79db67cf4d81f5a6b9448f07f |
| O/U 3.5 | 33¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0x63efb6b309c0e7d7e5b59f8266e8ad812a54926b3184f322adf0dadefd240204 |
| O/U 3.5 | 37¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets-o-polymarket-0xbeb972cf90358d08f200c25ff50f2f3225fe237c9ff42e009bbda7f0007d3a3f |
| Albirex Niigata | 51¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-albirex-niigat-polymarket-0xa0a31c22b636cde8cc370009598c17c2acb3d7fc25936947e478f86c2ebc2bc7 |
| Tokushima Vortis | 36¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-tokushima-vort-polymarket-0xb3a05a7a79c81086ea1ddfeb9b66b33e2dbfb37dbcab7f62fee6719d878867d6 |
| O/U 2.5 | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x168e563b2d4c7b1f468a99b54ea7449119ed44b9919b3e54941b2dbc316af6b6 |
| Albirex Niigata (-2.5) | 30¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets-a-polymarket-0x1e0203e082534575b22b1221ff01580a2192de3b6e2793a23e3c0834a1f4ea73 |
| Kamatamare Sanuki (-2.5) | 35¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0x082d3e01da8d253e5a272d4cd3690c1011213f63ab17c56889157506f1b09b88 |
| Both Teams to Score | 47¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets-b-polymarket-0xc21a6231f9cc16b116b4c05980abb57d62a92f0e6cb6b222f23ee635556b0eea |
| Kataller Toyama (-2.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0xa0c83bf391689cbf2fc8d3ad23a5796325c0208db0cd0105f360029a80332708 |
| Tokushima Vortis (-1.5) | 30¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets-t-polymarket-0x7eb8e51f44055078bfd4bfccc6e27c7141dfebcc3f3649b80febdf8ce6b1c63f |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets-o-polymarket-0xbff960fc7e0fe897b517ec4a6667af206dd5c051cac189c81658b47eaca78b67 |
| Kataller Toyama | 51¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-kataller-toya-polymarket-0x5261c5f1e660386369447ac4038da9e607a77c60bcfc1b51a0266a804e60e1bc |
| Draw (Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki) | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-draw-kataller-polymarket-0x8f340f850f574528867aa136e288e6561722234fd71d8cbe2c6ba016cecc1ee8 |
| Draw (Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis) | 35¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-draw-albirex-n-polymarket-0x263600b119586d1efbd3eab3947384a3e05b2289436896763b90babed45590e2 |
| Albirex Niigata (-1.5) | 32¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets-a-polymarket-0x01a64b6d8d860e39580fed23501e7b0bb25b7485c28469ceddd67860f9459a7e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 43 |
| 2026-05-02 | 40 |
| 2026-05-03 | 42 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Kamatamare Sanuki (-1.5) +5pp 33→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Tokushima Vortis (-1.5) +5pp 33→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Kamatamare Sanuki (-2.5) +4pp 34→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Kataller Toyama (-2.5) +4pp 32→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · O/U 4.5 +3pp 29→32¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kataller-toyama-vs-albirex-niigata
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kataller-toyama-vs-albirex-niigata

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.