# Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:50:47.727Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 78%
- Runner-up: O/U 2.5 at 55%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $57

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 78¢ | +11pp | $26 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0x487003b2e76ea36e00d19dcba6a1aee382087a80290c4b63b9459cc40c9c01fe |
| O/U 2.5 | 55¢ | −12pp | $17 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0xd108598c1ea2939d8259c617ee6673d2e2fed06854c85b27ae25acd6fedf62db |
| Both Teams to Score | 44¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0x881f458b76b6d561d43503c7cd0869a8463961c1787a43e52fbd1a62614fdeb3 |
| Kataller Toyama (-1.5) | 41¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0xa18b4aeaa1b53e7d32e9fb7c48098547da2808cc3e72e8a48824b4fd2cd09f97 |
| O/U 3.5 | 31¢ | −16pp | $14 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0x63efb6b309c0e7d7e5b59f8266e8ad812a54926b3184f322adf0dadefd240204 |
| Kataller Toyama (-2.5) | 20¢ | −16pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0xa0c83bf391689cbf2fc8d3ad23a5796325c0208db0cd0105f360029a80332708 |
| O/U 4.5 | 15¢ | −11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0xa9a0068043b8f70080dad1cbc72d232ee9b5278c21d12cbe3171107996419c94 |
| Kamatamare Sanuki (-2.5) | 9¢ | −31pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0x082d3e01da8d253e5a272d4cd3690c1011213f63ab17c56889157506f1b09b88 |
| Kamatamare Sanuki (-1.5) | 4¢ | −25pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0x7056f531d96671721afb19c5a038b9d973f574c79db67cf4d81f5a6b9448f07f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | O/U 2.5 | Both Teams to Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 63 | 53 | 53 |
| 2026-05-03 | 63 | 54 | 51 |
| 2026-05-06 | 74 | 42 | 48 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Kamatamare Sanuki (-2.5) −31pp 38→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Kamatamare Sanuki (-1.5) −25pp 38→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 3.5 −16pp 39→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Kataller Toyama (-2.5) −16pp 36→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 2.5 −12pp 54→42¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market prices the probability that Kataller Toyama defeats Kamatamare Sanuki in their upcoming match at 51%, meaning traders assess them as nearly evenly matched with a slight edge to Toyama. The current pricing reflects Toyama's marginal favoritism, likely driven by recent form, home advantage, or head-to-head history between these J-League Division 2 clubs. The leading contract at 51% outprices the runner-up outcome at 37%, suggesting moderate confidence rather than consensus. Liquidity remains modest at present volumes, meaning new information—injury reports, recent results, or line-movement from sharp bettors—could shift the probability meaningfully. Resolution occurs when the match concludes, which will either confirm Toyama's slight edge or reveal the market underpriced Sanuki's chances.

### Key factors

- Toyama's win probability (51%) exceeds Sanuki's (37%), indicating traders estimate Toyama as modest favorites but not strong favorites
- Current 24-hour volume on related markets is low ($265–$110 across top contracts), suggesting limited conviction and potential price sensitivity to new information
- Head-to-head record, recent form, and home/away splits for both clubs are key determinants of true win probability that would validate or refute the current 51% price
- Injury status of key players and team selection closer to match day could trigger repricing if significant absences emerge
- Market structure shows five separate contracts competing; the leading contract's 51% reflects dealer pricing rather than a true-odds consensus, leaving room for disagreement among distributed traders

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets

## License

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