# Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki

> Kataller Toyama leads at 51%, runner-up 37% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:35:05.168Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: Kataller Toyama at 51%
- Runner-up: Kamatamare Sanuki at 37%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kataller Toyama | 51¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-kataller-toya-polymarket-0x5261c5f1e660386369447ac4038da9e607a77c60bcfc1b51a0266a804e60e1bc |
| Kamatamare Sanuki | 37¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-kamatamare-sa-polymarket-0xd66617eb5856f7b6df026efbc92021859499a327e268de16f53eca1676409bbd |
| Draw (Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki) | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-draw-kataller-polymarket-0x8f340f850f574528867aa136e288e6561722234fd71d8cbe2c6ba016cecc1ee8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Kataller Toyama | Kamatamare Sanuki | Draw (Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 47 | 41 | 38 |
| 2026-05-02 | 48 | 41 | 38 |
| 2026-05-03 | 49 | 41 | 38 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market reflects a 49% probability that Kataller Toyama will defeat Kamatamare Sanuki in an upcoming match. The probability suggests a slight lean toward Kataller despite meaningful uncertainty—the runner-up holds 41% probability, indicating competitive positioning. Recent form, head-to-head records, and home/away advantage typically move such probabilities. The match itself serves as the resolution event; outcomes will be determined by final score. Market depth is thin (zero 24-hour volume across contracts), which means prices may shift substantially on limited trading activity. Bettors should note the over/under contracts clustering around 1.5 to 3.5 goals, suggesting expectation of a relatively low-scoring fixture. These markets remain sensitive to injury reports, lineup confirmations, and weather conditions closer to kickoff.

### Key factors

- Kataller Toyama holds a 49% win probability versus Kamatamare Sanuki's 41%, with draw probability implied at ~10%, indicating competitive teams without dominant favoritism
- Zero 24-hour trading volume across all contracts suggests illiquid market conditions where small position sizes could move prices meaningfully
- Over/under markets clustering at 1.5 and 3.5 goals indicate market expectation of low-scoring play, constraining win probability scenarios
- Polymarket aggregates only 3 contracts with limited historical depth, reducing confidence in probability stability relative to high-volume markets
- The match outcome depends on standard soccer variables: relative team form, head-to-head records, home-field advantage, and day-of lineup/injury status

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki

## License

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