# Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets

> O/U 1.5 leads at 72%, runner-up 59% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 21 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T11:35:19.756Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 72%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 59%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $10

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 72¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xc50831975e60b6665a0c4062af1d08ceeaf968a69b38978bf57dae0e90dcdfa0 |
| Both Teams to Score | 59¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-both-t-polymarket-0x635cbd45d09e8508967adabadf4b446a1cc0ab5162c74cdcf3b11c617cd04f96 |
| O/U 2.5 | 47¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x5a0c7816ae6badc971ddcefefba8eba7b44cb32f8f3d31a0a10a1f11af997648 |
| O/U 3.5 | 24¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x85c5f0f7fd8dae6799a49dc23c05f129ce5dfb750790fedcfa75721598507cdb |
| Kawasaki Frontale (-1.5) | 23¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-kawasa-polymarket-0x8de3ff056585d51097fd2482a4abc6cc83fb7dbe11744f648315460fa6d355c6 |
| O/U 4.5 | 16¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x90099fd2923ed9ff2403ac27e3e1e34094d86bb0a7c3c6bef9df63463973118b |
| Kawasaki Frontale (-2.5) | 14¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-kawasa-polymarket-0x3c1aa9a80edc6b086428b47577745380ec14a6a5fc83d1baf4197ee6a305576e |
| Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5) | 10¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-tky-ve-polymarket-0xe158bdcc299fae5f1b1c38a92c8eabb46f489427326e54d21b59bd361a840a3d |
| Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) | 9¢ | −2pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-tky-ve-polymarket-0x2ae2ebd1fd8f36dee4140d1e5d50addade8319b01b9486d126f98e2e54d468c8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | — | 53 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 73 | 56 | 47 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5) −6pp 34→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Kawasaki Frontale (-2.5) −4pp 33→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Both Teams to Score +3pp 53→56¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The probability reflects market participants' assessment that Kawasaki Frontale has a 54% chance of winning against Tōkyō Verdy in an upcoming J-League match. The current probability sits between even odds and a mild favorite position. Key drivers include recent form, head-to-head records, and squad availability. The match result will resolve this contract when the game concludes. Market pricing shows the most active contract (Tōkyō Verdy at -1.5 spread trading at 28¢) reflects moderate uncertainty, suggesting traders see meaningful probability for both outcomes. The relatively low volume ($10 in 24 hours) indicates modest participation in this specific market, which may affect pricing efficiency. Understanding whether this probability overestimates or underestimates Frontale's true odds depends on current injury status, recent league performance, and venue factors.

### Key factors

- Kawasaki Frontale's win probability (54%) exceeds Tōkyō Verdy's (37%), suggesting bookmakers view Frontale as the slight favorite
- The Tōkyō Verdy -1.5 spread contract trades significantly lower (28¢) than Frontale -2.5 (32¢), indicating spread markets price uncertainty differently than outright winner markets
- Low 24-hour volume ($10) in the leading contract suggests limited recent trading activity, potentially reducing price discovery efficiency
- The runner-up outcome captures 37% probability, indicating material belief in a non-Frontale result rather than consensus conviction
- Multiple related contracts exist (FC Tōkyō matchups, over/under totals) but show minimal volume, suggesting fragmented liquidity across the J-League market

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets

## License

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